As many blog readers know, I'm a member of the board of directors and a small investor in Ascel Bio . Ascel is the first company or organization to dynamically forecast disease outbreaks in much the same way we forecast hurricanes or tornadoes. We have issued a warning for Delta County, Colorado . Check it out. You'll be looking at an important scientific advance akin to the first tornado forecasts 50 years ago. There is a Facebook page here . We'd like you to "like" it.

The system in Gulf continues slowly organize. AccuWeather has the latest here . One thing seems sure: Florida will get very heavy rains over the next few days. click to enlarge

While conditions are becoming more conducive for tropical storm development, there is little certainty as to where this system is going to head. The European worldwide forecast model, generally the best in these situations, has a hurricane striking Texas in about eight days. The U.S. Global Forecast Mode shows a weak tropical storm striking Florida in about four days. Trying to forecast tropical systems more than about three days into the future is an iffy proposition. That said, it would be a good idea for people along the coast to keep an eye on the weather the next few days. ADDITION:  The National Hurricane Center has updated its outlook to forecast a 70% chance of a tropical depression developing in the next 48 hours.

Chances are increasing that a tropical system will form in the Gulf in the next day or two. National Hurricane Center

A posting by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. on why increasing government R&D dollars may not equal more useful innovation.

The orange area is a region the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible development.  Right now, heavy rain is forecast for the region. Here is the forecast rain for the next five days. For the most part, the rain will be welcome as 60-day rainfalls are below normal. click to enlarge

Symphony in the Flint Hills is one of Kansas' greatest events each year. Coverage of the 2012 version is here . Hat tip:  Madeline McCullough