Tornado season is beginning. Time to review this table! Tornadoes are possible through Friday night.  If you are at home:

6:25pm These are rare and should be seriously considered in your plans into this evening.  3:55pm, a new tornado watch issued.  4:24pm Please get your shelter ready! If you live in a mobile home, you can find your nearest public shelter here . 

A very active week of weather is ahead! The gray square in the middle Mississippi Valley is an area where I believe the amount of precipitation is under-forecasted. This includes the areas from the Kansas Flint Hills to the Great Lakes where no rain is forecast to fall. There may also be snow, in significant mounts, farther south in Iowa and eastern Nebraska.  California, Oregon and Washington will continue to receive significant rain and snow (higher elevations) this week.  Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Season Preparations   While preliminary, there is a good chance of severe thunderstorms near and east of Interstate 49 (roughly Kansas City to New Orleans) Friday and Saturday. If you have not prepared for tornado season 2025, the next few days will be a good opportunity to do so. What does that mean? Make sure family members know where to shelter in case a tornado warning if you aren't home.  Insure you have at least  two independent ways of receiving warning...

This is a photo of homes under construction in Olathe, Kansas. Each of those upright structures is a tornado "safe room." I understand that new homes with walkout basements must also have them.  Well done, Olathe!

So, here is a reminder about sheltering. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and night.  Here is a very preliminary  forecast for Wednesday. The hatched area is where the SPC believes strong tornadoes and giant hail is possible.  There is a unique issue raised by these forecasts. To where are people with damaged homes to go if a tornado warning is issued? Fortunately, we now have maps and lists of all known public tornado shelters in the USA? You can access that information here . If you need a shelter apart from you home, now is the time to do the research and make your plans!   

Next week looks very active from the Great Plains into the Midwest While I disagree a shelter is better than being in a basement in a closet or under heavy furniture (e.g., pool table), the above is a good guide.  This is something have taken care of this weekend if you don't already have at least three ways to get warnings. 

You may have seen this "poster" in various places. While I am a big fan of manufactured tornado shelters for those that do not have basements, there's absolutely nothing wrong with the traditional advice of "go to the basement and get under sturdy furniture like a pool table." Equally good would be a closet in a basement. The poster may imply otherwise.  In apartments, if you are on a lower floor, get into a bath or closet as close to the center of the building as possible. Put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. Better still, if there is an underground facility nearby (complex's laundromat), dash over to it.  As for businesses, because their spaces are often more complex than homes and there may be a liability issue if something goes wrong, it is probably worth it to pay an architect or engineer to provide management with advice regarding the best place for team members to shelter.  Regardless of the type of shelter, please remember the f...

I've been in Kansas City the past few days and I have a couple of comments to pass along in case they are helpful.  Two Kudos to Kansas City Union Station The first is for showing the IMAX movie, Train Time . I attended with Kathleen and my brother and sister-in-law. It is outstanding! My brother said, "It could be three times longer and it wouldn't have been long enough (it runs 50 minutes)!" The movie takes the topic of railroading and makes it fascinating.  Five Stars!  You may want to see if it is playing in an IMAX theatre in your area. The second kudos also goes to Union Station for having clearly marked signs indicating where to go in case of a tornado warning. Well done! The Demerit Goes to the Kauffman Center for the Performing Arts.... ...for its lack of storm warning signs and for the advice in the program to "sit in your seats and wait for further instructions" if there is a tornado warning.  As Herb Alpert noted Thursday evening, the facility is...

Several newspapers have run stories in the last few days pertaining to what type of tornado season (mild, bad) their readership areas might have this year. As you know, I do not post long-range forecasts on the blog because there seems to be so much interest -- I'm going to offer my thoughts on the topic as it pertains to Kansas as the Wichita Eagle  (screen capture above) ran one of those stories.  Based on some work I did a few years ago, Kansas tends to get more and worse tornadoes when El Nino/La Nina are neutral. This feature is known as ENSO and it is forecasted to be neutral this spring season. The spaghetti on the forecast graph (below) is the result of various oceanographic models' forecasts of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial east Pacific. Almost all forecast neutral conditions this spring. We will likely have an El Nino (positive temperatures > 1°C) by autumn.  The article also points out that high contrasts in soil moisture can promote tornadoes. ...