50 Days Ago: Hurricane Helene Develops in the Gulf of Mexico Helene's aftermath should be the lead story on each network's evening news for the foreseeable future.  Here's the latest on the horror in far east Tennessee, far northwest South Carolina, and western North Carolina: the situation is unbelievably bad and the people we pay to mitigate the effects of natural disasters are, at best, failing at their mission.  In the autumn of 2023, we had at least some reporting from the legacy media about the Maui "land grab" after the horrific fire that struck the City of Lahina. The historic city burned to the ground and the fire killed more than 100.  Serious questions remain unanswered about the Maui Wildfire, which is yet another reason why the United States must  create a National Disaster Review Board , see more below. But that is not the primary topic of this piece.  FEMA and insurance companies -- or people claiming to represent them -- have brought out that ...

From the very beginning of this blog, we have warned of natural hazards like ice storms, tornadoes, tsunamis and others. And, since at least 2011, we have warned of a Carrington Event or an electromagnetic pulse bomb in the upper atmosphere -- either of which would take out the electric grid...likely for weeks or months.  A number of publications have written about the mass cellphone outage the last few days have written about this topic . But, here's the problem: Presidents Obama and Trump appointed commissions to study this truly existential problem and recommend solutions. But, then, little happened.  So the question is: Will the United States wake up and fortify the grid before the next Carrington Event occurs.  And, will you put away at least a week of water and food (that won't spoil) away?

Thus spoke President Joe Biden referring to Hurricane Idalia on Thursday afternoon. I realize that tying global warming to things is red meat for his party's base.  Only one problem: the facts don't support his position. It is impossible for climate change to "cause" hurricanes.  Can climate change "contribute" to hurricanes? Theoretically, yes, but the evidence is weak.  Hurricane Strength and Duration The peer-reviewed " ACE Index " ( A ccumulated C yclone E nergy) is the gold standard as to hurricane frequency and intensity (wind speeds). It is available back to 1970, when we first had worldwide weather satellite coverage. There is no upward trend whatsoever -- it is flat. There is no increase due to climate change!  Hurricanes are not getting stronger. What about disaster costs? Of course, those are rising but it is because so many are building expensive homes and businesses in high risk areas. Let's look at what causes losses. Landfalls Le...

Ascel Bio Austin Bay’s excellent StrategyPage blog has published a piece about the Ebola crisis in the Congo. The succinct piece on how the Congolese war may spread Ebola to the Sudan and beyond is here .   That coincides with Ascel Bio’s independent assessment of the situation, which you can find here .  Ascel is closely monitoring the situation as the deadly Ebola virus has the potential to break out of Africa and into other parts of the world.  In addition to Diseasecast (our unique disease forecast product for the public), Ascel provides services to public health and medical professionals throughout the world. I am an investor in the company and we are closely monitoring the situation. 

Ms. Sweat is writing about the inland areas of the Florida Panhandle.  Please read the above plea for help from ~2pm via Twitter. Hurricane Michael caused massive destruction that was, at first, underestimated by some.  Even though we donated to the Salvation Army's hurricane relief fund earlier this month, Kathleen and I just made another donation. Florence and Michael were monsters. If you are safe in your home enjoying football you are very blessed at the moment. So, please help the people who are struggling for survival from Hurricane Michael. To donate, please click here .

The creepy story is here .

This is a superb analysis by Dr. Cliff Mass on ways to improve reliance to all types of weather and climate extremes. While Cliff is focusing on the State of Washington, much of what he has recommended an be adapted elsewhere. One caveat: I do not believe there is any skill to regional climate modeling.

I was in New York yesterday addressing an insurance industry group. Again, I was asked what went wrong in Joplin. For those that are new to this blog, the May 22, 2011, tornado -- the only single tornado to cause triple-digit fatalities since the tornado warning program began -- has been surrounded by the greatest amount of misinformation of any tornado of my career. Here is just some of the misinformation about that tragedy: The tornado suddenly formed on the west side of town. The sirens were sounded when the tornado warning (that included the eventual path of the tornado) was issued There was 40 minutes of "lead time" (time between when the warning was issued for the path of the tornado when when it arrived) None of these statements are true.  When the Sirens Were Silent   was written to explain what really occurred in Joplin, why the death toll was so high, and what we can do to prevent it from happening again. While the paperback version is sold out, the ...

While the photo below looks like it came from a scene in The Big Bang Theory,  it was taken at a recent disaster conference and trade show in New Orleans . While I have never been to one of these trade shows, this is -- unfortunately -- a growth industry. Hurricane Sandy, Blizzard of '13, Russian meteor. The goal of this blog is to help readers plan for and mitigate the risks associated primarily with extreme weather but also with other disasters. I do professional speaking and seminars on extreme weather safety. If you are interested in booking one, please contact Ms. Mindy Cook , the marketing director for Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC .

The National Weather Service sums up the too-numerous billion dollar disasters of 2011. Glad this year is over! And, this list does not include the pre-Halloween snow storm in the Northeast that likely would have totaled a billion if indirect costs (staying in hotels, etc.) were included. From a meteorological point-of-view, very glad it is over. Jack Hayes, the Director of the National Weather Service, offers similar thoughts . The 552 deaths from tornadoes, the worst since 1925, was the lowlight of the year. Here is a one-minute animation of the tornadoes of 2011.

The National Weather Service has issued its Service Assessment of the record April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak. You might find it interesting reading .

The Wall Street Journal  has a story about the necessity of having a home inventory for insurance purposes and tools to make keeping one easier. You'll be glad you did in case of disaster. Details her e.

Now that we have begun a new decade since the attacks of 9/11, I believe it is time to take a fresh look at the TSA and airport security. As a person who has spent an entire career developing techniques to save lives and manage risks, the expenditure of $57,000,000,000 on airport security is at best excessive and at worst largely a waste. What do I mean as "excessive"? Given that cockpit doors are locked and that passengers would fight back against any attempt to hijack a plane, spending that amount of money -- given the far more serious threats we are hardly addressing -- is nonsensical. We just saw 46 deaths and (preliminary estimate) $15,000,000,000 in damage due to weak Hurricane Irene. Just imagine what a category 4 hurricane (which occurred in 1938) could do to the Northeast given today's population!  Want $10/gallon gasoline? Just put a cat 3 or greater hurricane into the Houston Ship Channel. We have put too many fuel production eggs in that basket. These ...

Their stories here . I had never heard of insulin cooling wallets before but here they are and they can be lifesavers, apparently. Highly recommend reading to help you prepare for the next storm or flood -- which, if you live in the path of Lee, may already be on the way!

Rain has already started on the Gulf coast as Tropical Storm Thirteen creeps north at 2 mph. Given the long duration, storm totals may exceed 20" in spots. Winds could be 50+ mph as the storm intensifies slightly over the weekend. The flood risk with this system is very high. As I was doing last week at this time, I urge  people living in these areas -- even if you are in an area that does not traditionally flood -- to be prepared in case an evacuation is necessary. And, tropical storm Katia continues in the Atlantic. There is nothing to worry about  for the next five days. However, starting Tuesday, the U.S. east coast will need to begin to pay attention. I still doubt that Katia will get to the U.S. coast but she will be close enough that -- after you've enjoyed the weekend -- you'll ant to monitor the storm.

I believe it is now clear to everyone that Irene was not "overhyped" by weather forecasters, Associated Press photo of what used to be Route 4 in Vermont with approximately 6,000,000 still without power 4-5 days (depending on location) after the storm and communities still cut-off from the outside world, I want to close out Meteorological Musing's coverage of Irene with a remarkable time-lapse of Irene with  the National Weather Service's path forecast superimposed. Hat tip: Andrea Bleistein While they were not perfect, I'm very proud of my colleagues at AccuWeather and the National Weather Service for superb forecasts of this dangerous storm that unquestionably saved lives and dollars. The meteorological profession came through again. I'd now like to talk just a moment about preparedness. The Wall Street Journal  has an online story just posted about "slow pace" of the recovery. Political leaders encountered frustrated residents in th...