Milton will be a major hurricane at landfall. All preparations should be finished by 8am Wednesday.  Hurricane Milton at 9:45am EDT.  Most recent Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates the maximum winds in the storm are still 145 mph with a lowest barometric pressure of 929 millibars.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast is below.  The forecast wind speed at landfall is 125 mph. Milton is forecast to cross the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane, thus hurricane warnings (red) the entire width of the state.  Color codes: Red = hurricane warning Blue = tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph) Pink = hurricane watch Yellow = tropical storm watch Amber = tropical storm force winds. Brown = hurricane force winds. This is a good representation of the forecast winds.  There is going to be a killer storm surge if people do not get out of the way.   In the purple area, the storm surge is forecast to be 10 to 15 feet above sea level. Of course, there will b...

As of 10pm, the storm has weakened just a bit with 165 mph winds and rising pressures. However, the forecast below is essentially unchanged with a 125 mph sustained winds hurricane and a crushing storm surge at landfall. --- original postings --- Official Hurricane Warnings Up For Tampa and Parts of the Florida Gulf Coast! As of 5pm EDT: Wind speeds 180 mph sustained winds with gusts to 200+ mph. Pressure 897 millibars. Winds forecast to  strengthen to 185 sustained during the night.  Something about this storm just looks mean. Although I have turned the lightning display off, there is considerable lighting in the eye -- still. That mean it is still strengthening or attempting to strengthen. The storm is currently moving due east at 9 mph. There has been a little bit of a slight bit of northern movement during the past hour or so.  Please note (pink) that hurricane-force winds are forecast to be possible all the way to Jacksonville, Cape Canaveral and Melbourne. The red i...

At 8:12am, Milton continues to strength in the Gulf. Evacuation orders are going out today: Please follow them! Milton is a small, but extremely powerful, hurricane. You can see the pinpoint eye above.  At 8:13am, the satellite image (with lightning activated on the display) shows intense lightning near the eye.  Lightning near the eye is a bad sign as it means intensification. Winds have increased to 150 mph and the pressure is 945 940 mb and dropping rapidly. It will probably reach Cat 5 status.  Here is the updated (7a) forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Color codes: Red = hurricane warning.  Blue = tropical storm warning. Pink = hurricane watch. Yellow = tropical storm watch. In addition to a hurricane watch, a devastating storm surge is forecast along much of the Florida Gulf Coast. While out at sea, Milton is forecast to strengthen to 155 mph winds and then have 125 mph at landfall. This will be somewhat like Katrina that had extreme winds out ...

Satellite image at 2:25pm CDT shows intensifying Hurricane Milton developing an eye. The storm has maximum winds of 80 mph and the central pressure has dropped to 988 millibars.  3pm CDT My forecast for the point of landfall for the eye has barely changed since yesterday.  I am forecasting the eye to make landfall between the two arrows. However, in addition to the danger of winds in the eyewall, there will be a life-threatening storm surge! For example, if the eye passes just north of Tampa Bay and it reaches at least Cat 2 intensity, there will be places that experience a storm surge of more than 9 feet above sea level. By far, the worst storm surge effects will be near and south of the eye.  The intensity forecast is rather difficult. The models are all over the map. My best forecast at this point is that the storm will be Cat 2 or 3 at landfall. Cat 4 is certainly possible. That is sufficient to cause serious damage. The fact the storm will strike the coast at or near...

I am sorry to report that Milton is already a hurricane with 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 988 millibars. I'm quite worried about the Florida Gulf Coast and am beginning to work on an updated forecast. 

The National Hurricane Center's forecast (upper) is now for Milton to be a Cat 3 at landfall. Its 9:45pm forecast is immediately below. The storm now has 45 mph winds.  My forecast is unchanged from 3:40pm this afternoon. The advance below is also unchanged.  Milton is still a tropical storm at 4pm. Its pressure is 1006 mb and its winds are up to 40 mph. However, it is forecast to develop into a hurricane and strike the west coast of Florida the middle of next week.  What makes the situation unusual is that the storm will be approaching from the west southwest. This means the storm will strike at nearly a 90° angle. That enhances the storm surge and wind effects along and, especially, just to the right (in this case, south) of the eye.  Milton may resemble 2005's Wilma (map below). Peach is Cat 2 and yellow is Cat 1.  Even though Wilma was not particularly strong, its approach angle made the storm more powerful than many people in Florida expected. It did a...

 Below is the radar from 5:49pm. A center has formed and Debby is moving northwest. I have underlined Miami, Key West and Cape Coral to orient Florida. Red is a hurricane warning. Pink is a hurricane watch. Blue is a tropical storm warning. The amber area is the current area of tropical storm force winds (39-60 mph). S = tropical hurricane. H = hurricane.  Debby is only expected to move about 70 miles to northeast after 2pm Tuesday. That is why makes the potential rain event so dangerous.  The widespread 7 to 15" amounts near the coast will cause catastrophic flooding. Please prepare now! In addition a life-threatening storm surge of up to 7 feet is likely along the Florida Big Bend.  Finally, there is a significant risk of tornadoes Sunday and Sunday night in the green area. 

The Heaviest Rains Have Moved South of Miami. Below is the rainfall for the 12 hours ending at 8pm.  72-hour rainfalls are in excess of 20 inches in places! The update below was posted at 7:15pm Extreme flooding for parts of Miami-dade and Broward Counties.  This is a life-threatening situation.  6:35pm: Forecast is For More Heavy Rain Next Three Hours in the Area Outlined in Purple. The Heaviest Rains are Along and  South of Alligator Alley NWS assessment at 5pm: Below is the map of 12hr hour rainfall to 6pm. As much as 14 inches have fallen near the Dade-Broward border at the coast. Here is the latest flight information 7p. Many flights are cancelled. Among those that are not: At Ft. Lauderdale, among the flights that aren't cancelled, there is an average seven hour  delay.  Here is the radar from7pm. Torrential rains continue to fall.  Earlier Updates: The heavy rains continue to fall in southern Florida. Below are the rainfall amounts over the past...

11:30pm radar: The rains are getting started.  --- original posting still valid --- Florida has been suffering from drought recently.  The good news is that rain is on the way. The bad news is that it will probably be too much, too fast in many parts of the southern Peninsula. Below is the NWS's rainfall forecast for the next seven days.  Here is a close-up of the forecast rain in the south. The storms begin tonight.  Please don't consider these forecast amounts to be exact. However, a major rain event is extremely likely, so please prepare accordingly. 

At 5:25pm EDT, Hurricane Elsa had thunderstorms wrapping around a fairly well defined eye on radar.  Now,  the storm appears smaller and disorganized. Dry air (arrow) is being drawn into the center causing the weakening along with strong wind shear over the storm.  Barometric pressures, which had dropped to 996 millibars, have risen by about six millibars.  It is not obvious to me what would cause the storm to reintensify. However, a hurricane warning is still in effect and it is important that people in the warning area stay indoors as winds above 60 mph will cause flying debris and toppling trees.