What was suspected by many  has now been confirmed: FEMA ordered its people in Florida not  to call on, and offer relief to , homes with Trump signs in the wake of Hurricane Milton.  FEMA has confirmed this occurred. From the Daily Wire  (via Instapundit ): A federal disaster relief official ordered workers to bypass the homes of Donald Trump’s supporters as they surveyed damage caused by Hurricane Milton in Florida, according to internal correspondence obtained by The Daily Wire and confirmed by multiple federal employees. A FEMA supervisor told workers in a message to “avoid homes advertising Trump” as they canvassed Lake Placid, Florida to identify residents who could qualify for federal aid, internal messages viewed by The Daily Wire reveal. The supervisor, Marn’i Washington, relayed this message both verbally and in a group chat used by the relief team, multiple government employees told The Daily Wire. The government employees told The Daily Wire that at least ...

The National Hurricane Center did an extraordinary job with Milton. Thank you very much!!! I'm borrowing this from Fox 5. Twelve miles.  Absolutely extraordinary. And, we should thank God it wasn't 18 miles farther north. That would have taken it up the mouth of Tampa Bay. The damage to the south would have been virtually the same but the damage in the Tampa area -- already bad -- would have been catastrophic.

The power outages as of 9pm. This works out to 2.5 to 3 million people.  The eye is inland with the highest winds over Tampa Bay. Fortunately, the eye came in about 20 miles south of the mouth of the Bay -- which makes the storm far less damaging than it would have been.  10 foot storm surge at Sarasota! Major storm surge flooding at Naples. The NOAA tide gauge at north Naples shows major  flooding, perhaps record flooding, occurring with the storm surge. 

iPhones: Upload iOS18 to enable satellite texting if you lose ground-based cell service. Here's more: SpaceX @SpaceX In addition to the thousands (>10k) of Starlink kits we are delivering in response to Hurricane Helene, the @Starlink team and @TMobile activated our Direct to Cell satellites to provide emergency alerts for all phones and carriers of those in affected areas. The @FCC has also rapidly approved emergency special temporary authority for coverage in Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton. We have now enabled basic texting (SMS) for those on T-Mobile phones in hurricane affected areas. Text messages have already been sent and received. You can text loved ones, text 911 and continue to receive emergency alerts. If a phone connects to a Starlink satellite, it will have 1 to 2 bars of signal and show "T-Mobile SpaceX" in the network name. Users may have to manually retry text messages if they don't go through at first, as this is being delivered on a b...

The eye (E) is just off the coast. The eyewall (EW) has the strongest winds. In this case, they are in an unusual location -- northwest of the eye. Wind gusts of 115mph are likely in the eyewell. Sarasota already had a 78 mph gust about an hour ago. St. Petersburg Airport just clocked a gust of 78 mph.  The rash of tornadoes seems to have calmed down for the moment.  I've added the storm surge for Naples. Major flooding is occurring!

Milton approaching the Florida Coast Based on the latest radar and other trends, the eye should move ashore along or between the two arrows. Near the eye and for about 50 miles to the south a catastrophic storm surge will occur.  It is still possible that the eye will move through Tampa Bay. The eyewall will cross the coast with 120 mph winds and a few higher gusts. Power outages will rapidly increase through the evening and overnight hours and the power will be out for days or weeks in most areas.  Milton will be a historic storm. I wrote about its effects on the economy, et cetera, over at LinkedIn .  Most of the power outages up to the moment are due to tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds earlier in the day. But note the green tinting near the coast: that is due to the approaching hurricane. All of that will spread inland this evening.  More than a foot of rain will fall causing severe flash flooding and flooding on major rivers.  The rash of tornadoes ...

The hurricane has taken more of a northeast to east northeast turn. The eye of the hurricane will cross the coast between about Venice and Tampa Bay, both locations inclusive. This image: 3:38pm. This is a single image from the Tampa radar at 3:47pm. The image is quite cluttered with red tornado warnings and green flash flood warnings. There has been significant tornado damage with the storm. Below is the updated tornado forecast.  The yellow hatched area has an enhanced  risk of strong  tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk. Please monitor local storm warnings the rest of today and tonight. 

Forecasts still look good. The will make landfall between Tampa Bay and Osprey, both locations inclusive. The storm's winds are weakening as predicted but it will be a major hurricane with a life-threatening storm surge. Tornadoes are a major threat at this point with numerous tornado warnings in effect.  Radar at 2:37pm.

Here's the latest forecast for Milton.  Do not focus on the "M" (major) symbol but rather the white shading. That will be the zone in which the eye will make landfall. The storm has weakened this morning as dry air has come in from the west. However, it will still be a major hurricane (I'd estimate 115 mph) at landfall. It is critical to remember that the surge is baked in. While we cannot forecast the exact  point of highest surge due to the uncertainty of the exact spot of landfall, all of the Florida Gulf Coast should evacuate where under evacuation orders.  Radar at 11:16am. The arrow is pointing at the eye. More the tornado warnings (red polygons) over the Peninsula.  A tornado watch is in effect for Florida south of I-4.  Flooding is likely  with this vast amount of rain, especially near and ~50 miles north of I-4. 

  Now is the time to rush preparations to completion!  We can now see Milton on radar. As of 9:12 am,  Current maximum sustained winds are 155 mph. The eye of Milton is a little less impressive than it was even 20 minutes ago. Some dry air is entering (arrow) which means the well-forecast wind weakening in the eye is underway. However, the weakening will be limited as the storm is forecast to have 130 mph winds at landfall. Also, the wind weakening will have no bearing on the catastrophic storm surge.  Below is the 8am forecast track.  Look how much larger the wind field for tropical storm force winds (amber) and hurricane force winds (brown) are as compared to yesterday. Winds will be increasing along the Gulf Coast later this morning. There is an enhanced risk of strong  tornadoes in the hatched area. There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in general in the yellow area. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Near and just north of I-4, ...

The Hurricane Hunters just measured a surface wind of 184 mph just after 9pm. The satellite image from 9:17pm. This is an exceptionally powerful hurricane that will bring a killer storm surge as well as powerful winds. While I turned them off so you could see the eye, there is still lightning in the eye, which indicates it is not weakening. 

Per the National  Hurricane Center at 5pm, Milton is back up to Cat 5 with 165 mph or even a little stronger winds. The eye is filled with lightning; meaning the storm may intensify further. At 5:30pm Hurricane Hunters found the pressure has dropped very rapidly the past 4 hours. The short-term outlook is more strengthening.  Having done this for more than 50 years, something about this hurricane looks "mean." I notice that other meteorologists have the same assessment. While that is instinct, the science backs it up. The storm now has 165+ mph winds and the pressure is a low 923 below 905 902 millibars (6:50pm EDT). Too words: Get Out!  if you are in an evacuation zone. You will find a link to some great evacuation tips at a link, below.  Milton will cause widespread long-duration  power failures across Florida. Water and sewer service will likely fail as they did with Andrew. For example, it is day 12 and more than 176,000 homes and businesses are still wit...

Milton will be a major hurricane at landfall. All preparations should be finished by 8am Wednesday.  Hurricane Milton at 9:45am EDT.  Most recent Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates the maximum winds in the storm are still 145 mph with a lowest barometric pressure of 929 millibars.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast is below.  The forecast wind speed at landfall is 125 mph. Milton is forecast to cross the Florida Peninsula as a hurricane, thus hurricane warnings (red) the entire width of the state.  Color codes: Red = hurricane warning Blue = tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph) Pink = hurricane watch Yellow = tropical storm watch Amber = tropical storm force winds. Brown = hurricane force winds. This is a good representation of the forecast winds.  There is going to be a killer storm surge if people do not get out of the way.   In the purple area, the storm surge is forecast to be 10 to 15 feet above sea level. Of course, there will b...

As of 10pm, the storm has weakened just a bit with 165 mph winds and rising pressures. However, the forecast below is essentially unchanged with a 125 mph sustained winds hurricane and a crushing storm surge at landfall. --- original postings --- Official Hurricane Warnings Up For Tampa and Parts of the Florida Gulf Coast! As of 5pm EDT: Wind speeds 180 mph sustained winds with gusts to 200+ mph. Pressure 897 millibars. Winds forecast to  strengthen to 185 sustained during the night.  Something about this storm just looks mean. Although I have turned the lightning display off, there is considerable lighting in the eye -- still. That mean it is still strengthening or attempting to strengthen. The storm is currently moving due east at 9 mph. There has been a little bit of a slight bit of northern movement during the past hour or so.  Please note (pink) that hurricane-force winds are forecast to be possible all the way to Jacksonville, Cape Canaveral and Melbourne. The red i...