I want to begin by acknowledging to everyone what a great job the National Weather Service did with Hurricane Florence.  And, the forecasts and messaging for Florence from the entire meteorological community represented a huge step forward.  Florence also demonstrated the minority of people who believe we can take human meteorologists out of the process are wrong, very wrong. Some of the computer models were way  off early in the process yet human forecasters knew how to correct for those issues. We are going to need human forecasters, especially in storm or unusual circumstances, as far into the future as I can see. Regardless of that huge step forward, there were a vocal few people who were upset -- some very  upset -- about the television, WEA, and Twitter warnings for Hurricane Florence. Those are a couple of the civil tweets. Some were downright mean. While I know we cannot please everyone, I'm not sure these people people want. The forecasts, incl...

Charlotte Observer The quick bottom line as to the quality of the forecasts of Hurricane Florence presented on this blog: The forecast location of landfall of the eye of Florence was extraordinary. Incredibly good; a major step forward for weather science. The forecast of the record flooding rains. Again, excellent. The forecast of maximum wind speeds was "fair." Yes, it was a significant hurricane but the initial wind speed forecasts were too high.  The forecast location and magnitude of the storm surge forecasts were good to very good.  So far there have been seventeen reported deaths and "900 lives saved" due to rescues. The latter suggests the evacuation orders and the forecasts were not as effective as they should have been. It also suggests that, without good forecasts, the number of deaths could have been 1,000 or more !! Now, the details.  Landfall Location Here is the Sunday forecast of landfall presented on this blog. In this cas...

As of 10:45am Sunday, heavy rains will continue falling for another 18-36 hours.  Here is the flash flood forecast from now through 8am tomorrow morning. 80% of all flash flood deaths occur in "high risk" areas. And, from 8am Monday to 8am Tuesday. Addition as of 11:10am: click to enlarge Per a bulletin from the NWS, the area outlined will experience extreme rainfall during the next six hours. As much as eight inches in spots is not out of the question. Waters are still rising in many areas. Here are my safety suggestions: Put together a "go kit" with passports, current utility bill (to establish residence), birth certificates, family heirlooms and other vital and difficult to replace material so you can leave at a moment's notice. Be able to shut off gas and water to your home at a moment's notice.  Keep your car filled with gas.  If you are in a flash flood warning,  climb  first rather than than just driving away. Turn around, d...

The hurricane is now close enough to the coast to give some perspective on its size. Maximum winds are now 120 mph.  Below is the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The amber is the diameter of the tropical storm force winds (sustained 40 mph with higher gusts) and the brown is the diameter of the hurricane force winds (sustained 75 mph winds with higher gusts). The area of hurricane force winds is huge, far larger than Hurricane Sandy's.  The clock is running out but there is still time to take adequate precautions in advance of Florence, I'd like to do a final rundown before in hopes of helping my readers prepare. Checklist is here . Below is the time by which precautions should be completed at your location. The map shows the earliest time of arrival of sustained 40 mph winds (with gusts to 60 mph). Beyond that time power failures can begin and driving gets more hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. Now we break Florence down int...

Yesterday, I wrote about the ghoulishness of publishing global warming propaganda while tens of thousands are trying to preserve their lives and property as Florence approaches the coast. Today, I don't even have words for the Washington Post's  editorial (headline above) which is so ridiculous I'm not even going to link to it. As a meteorologist for the last 47-years, I'd love to learn how to get in touch with these weather gods so as to learn how to control hurricanes. Of course, it is possible the Post's  writers don't know the definition of "complicit." Or, perhaps, they don't even understand the most basic aspects of either weather or climate. That hurricanes have struck the Middle Atlantic region since the beginning of time regardless of the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. Or, that there were more hurricanes in the region before  CO2 levels rose. As the graphic below illustrates, major hurricanes on the East Coast are 63% less  freq...

140 mph winds Hurricane Florence 4:50pm Tuesday 5pm National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Warning  Now in Effect from South Santee River, South Carolina north to Pimlico and Albamarle Sounds.  Dark brown is the hurricane-force winds and amber is the tropical storm-force winds. The wind field will likely grow in diameter between now and landfall. Thus, don't worry too much about the point of landfall. Just about all of the information you need is below. Basemap by Capital Weather Gang Closeup of Hurricane Warning Area With Major Cities First, I hope you have used the checklists in the postings below to prepare yourself and your family for the oncoming storm. Here is the timing of sustained 40 mph winds (with gusts to 60 mph). You should be gone by these times. Below, I am going to provide details as to the threat areas for the three types of hazards: Saltwater storm surge Wind damage Freshwater (river and stream) major to catastrophic flooding Many ...

Hurricane Florence 3:30pm EDT Monday. Sustained winds 136 mph. Central pressure 944 mb.  “Well, I was in Hurricane Gordon and we didn’t have any damage…”  Sirius XM this morning.  “I can’t say that!” (when I asked a newsman this morning to say that Florence had the  potential  to be the worst disaster in U.S. history) The national media has not been covering Florence as it should but believe me: if  the wrong ingredients come together, Florence could be the worst disaster in U.S. history due to: Winds of a strong Category 4 storm, a rare event in itself. The winds will be coming into the U.S. coast at the most destructive angle.  Terrible storm surge of 12+' Major to catastrophic flooding due to maximum rainfalls of more than 20" (likely) to more than 50" (possible if the storm stops moving in the wrong place) causing record flooding.  Let's break it down. If you have friends or family in the Middle Atlantic Region...