Important Hurricane Forecasting Paper

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With the mess this spring with regard to the National Weather Service, especially regarding hurricane forecasting, I have good news.

#1. The concern about the microwave data from the DMSP satellite is over. It will continue for the life of the satellite.

#2. Even more important is a peer-reviewed paper published last week that demonstrates the importance of the entire suite of hurricane hunter data. 

Every American Meteorological Society journal contains a "significance statement" that explains how it advances the science. Here's the statement with this paper:

When a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean is forecast to make landfall in the United States and its territories, the Gulfstream IV (G-IV) aircraft is used to collect data from the environment around the hurricane with the goal of improving the hurricane track forecast. Our study aims to evaluate whether these data improve the track forecasts of hurricanes from 2018 to 2022 by comparing forecasts with these data to forecasts without these data. Averaged over all forecasts, the track forecasts with the G-IV data were up to 24% better than track forecasts without these data. We also looked closer at two forecasts from Hurricanes Marco and Zeta to understand how the addition of the G-IV data could have resulted in better track forecasts.

This is vitally important because it provides us with scientific facts we can use to rebut those who wish to cut funding for hurricane hunters or other vital sources of data. Before, we thought this data helped but we didn't know for sure. 

Thank you Dr. Piper and Torn for providing this vital information. 

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