The area in red has an enhanced risk  of flash flooding from heavy thunderstorms through 8am Friday. Please keep up on the weather in these areas. 

Turns out, everything is solved and there will be no adverse effect to hurricane forecasting. 

There is an enhanced  risk of flash flooding in the red area from 8am Thursday to 8am Friday. If you live in a flood prone area, please give thought to how you would handle a flash flood warning for your region.  I'll update the situation tomorrow. 

An explanation of why global warming is not  an existential crisis is here . 

1:04am The waves have reached Hawaii but at heights smaller than forecast, even though the water left the beaches as seen on several webcams. Very relieved! That said, I'm turning in for the night.  12:06am CDT = 7:06p HST This is a webcam in west Maui. The tsunami is expected soon. Not how the water has withdrawn from the normal beach.  11:50pm,  11:38pm,   11:31pm, this is a big deal. At Midway, the tsunami was 5'. This is a big deal  because when tsunamis get into shallow water, they grow considerably.  9:31pm: nothing has changed since the last update. Update: 8:37p:   This is a downgrade from the watch.  Update: 8:15p Central:  Video of the tsunami hitting Kamchatka, Russia.  Update: 7:57p Central = 2:57p Hawaiian Time. Tsunami warning just issued for the Hawaiian Islands. The first wave is forecast to reach Hawaii at 7:17pm HST. The area in red (western Aleutians) has a tsunami warning. Yellow is a tsunami watch. I'll have more wh...

The Department of Agriculture has announced it is moving most of its employees outside of Washington , DC. Here's where they are going: Raleigh Kansas City Indianapolis Ft Colins Salt Lake City I vote for doing this across the federal government. For example, there's no reason the Department of Transportation should be in Washington. 

Tornado Risk There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area.  Derecho Risk For Winds Up to 90 mph The area in yellow has a significant risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The red area has an enhanced risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The purple area has a high  risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger. In the hatched area, derecho-generated winds of 90 mph are possible.  A  derecho  is possible. Please keep in mind that wind force is logarithmic which means that an 90 mph gust is far more damaging than a 60 mph gust.  Safety Recommendations If you live in a mobile home or need a public shelter, you will find lists and maps  here . Please check it now, before the threat of a tornado or extreme winds is imminent. If you have friends or family living in housing without an adequate tornado/extreme wind sheltering area, please give them a call and refer them to the public shelter site.  With this combination of tornado and derecho ...

These were posted on LinkedIn yesterday. Mr. Fugate is the former head of FEMA: And Ms. Sutherlin, Los Angeles Area Emergency Manager "WEA (the FCC/FEMA/NOAA "Wireless Emergency Alerts) is extremely problematic when used alone. Which what many of us have said since it went online in 2012.  If we had a National Disaster Review Board these issues would not exist. Experts would be asking these (highly appropriate) questions after major disasters and we would learn and improve as opposed to Mr. Fugate's correct observation, ...after 40+ years in emergency management, I still see us making the same mistakes." Congress?

The area i brown has a significant risk of tornadoes. There is a chance of isolated storms this afternoon but the better chance of tornadoes and damaging winds is this evening. Please keep up with the weather in this area. 

Airport announcements, especially at the gate, are the worst. Video here . 

From storm chasers to antique cars, we've added photos to my collection at Adobe Stock Photography. Check them out when you have a chance. 

In addition to an elevated risk of flash flooding , the brown area has a significant risk  of tornadoes late this afternoon and into tonight. Please monitor the weather in this area!

The red area has a 40 to 65% chance of flash flooding, most likely this evening and tonight. The NWS characterizes the flood potential as "considerable."  The yellow area has a 15 to 35% chance.  Remember: Whatever you do, do not try to cross flooded areas by foot or by car. That is the #1 cause of deaths in flash floods.  If you live in an area prone to flooding, please consider -- now -- what you would need to do to make a quick evacuation.  In much of this area, especially the area in red, the ground is saturated by recent rains so it will take less rain than usual to create flash flooding.  Flooding is already occurring in some area and/or is forecast to occur. The maps below -- which are experimental -- show the extent of flooding. Central and Eastern Kansas Central and Western Missouri Flooding Legend: "Action" means the river will crest near bankful and should be monitored. 

I'm pleased to report the House of Representatives has introduced a bi-partisan bill to completely reform FEMA. The details of the changes are  here . On the its logo you see the words, "Department of Homeland Security." That will change if the bill becomes law. FEMA will become an independent, Cabinet-level agency reporting to the President. One item in the bill is money for new headquarters. As I wrote months ago about my reform ideas: I want to thank the team at Rep. Sharice Davids' (D-KS) office for a dialog on the disaster-related issues in our nation and for bringing the proposed FEMA changes to my attention.  As you know, I believe major changes are necessary at the National Weather Service. One of which is cleaving the NWS from NOAA. The new NWS would become an independent agency. Details of my NWS reform plan are  here .  Finally -- and maybe most important -- we  must  have a  National Disaster Review Board  to keep FEMA (old and new), ...

The red area has a 40 to 65% chance of flash flooding tonight.  If you have errands to run, I recommend doing them sooner rather than later (time 3:15pm) as thunderstorms are starting to develop in northeast Kansas. Please keep up on the weather if you live in the red-tined area.  Remember: the leading cause of casualties in flash floods is people trying to cross flooded areas by foot or by car.  The yellow stripe has a 15-30% chance of flash flooding.  The atmosphere is filled with moisture and a weak low pressure area aloft over western Kansas is slowly drifting east which should be the trigger from the storm. More than 5" of rain is being forecast over eastern Kansas. 

I admit, this blog has been pretty downbeat since the morning of July 4 and the horrific Texas Hill Country Flood. It has been necessary to, in our small way, to figure out when wrong and help prevent it from recurring.  Now: how about some absolutely wonderful news? Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has published a remarkable study demonstrating the first six months of 2024 had the lowest number of weather-related deaths due to extreme conditions than any other first six months in recorded human history.  Before anyone jumps to conclusions about "climate denial" or related thoughts: Roger is a Democrat who has said he voted for Harris in November and also said, when President Biden dropped out, he supported Gretchen Whitmer to be the D nominee for President of the United States.  He wrote Sunday on his Substack, The Honest Broker: His study is  here .  While we have had the Texas and other floods that have produced deaths and other weather-caused fatalities since July 1 --...

What the National Weather Service Intends to Send in  Flash Flood Warning Situations is Often Not What the  Public Receives! Apologies may be appropriate by those critical of the decision-making in  Texas during the pre-dawn hours of July 4 in light of this new information. News4SanAntonio "We didn't know this flood was coming." So said the chief executive of Kerr County, Texas, Rob Kelly. He went on to say, "We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here, none whatsoever."    July 4, 2025 In dozens of media including the New York Times, Washington Post, etc. -- I won't list them all here -- the National Weather Service (NWS) has countered statements like Mr. Kelly's by asserting, correctly, it sent out a flash flood warning at 1:14am that called for "life-threatening flooding."  Horribly, the "life-threatening" message did not  reach segments of the public.  What follows is the result ...

The area from Quincy to Terra Haute has a moderate risk of flash flooding over the next 20 hours. Please keep an eye on the weather if you live in, or will be traveling to, this area.  Remember: the #1 cause of flash flood casualties is driving through or walking through flood areas. 

This column is for Dave Barry fans, only.  I'm reading Dave Barry's terrific new book, Class Clown , and on page 119 he talks about an inside joke he had with frequent readers of his weekly column: when someone would send in potential column material from a newspaper story, he would write, "Sent in by alert reader Dave Jones..." Example below. When I read the circled passage of Class Clown , it reminded me of a token of appreciation received a couple of decades ago.  I'll have you know that nothing gets past the Smith Family! I want my tombstone to read, "Here lies Mike Smith, meteorologist and Alert Reader." By the way, if Dave ever comes to your town, make it a point to go to his book tour presentation. He is hilarious and will take the time to really speak to you when he autographs your copy of his book. Dave (like all geniuses) is left-handed, Kathleen and Mike in 2016