Saturday, April 11, 2020

Tornado Risk Forecast: 6am Sunday to 1pm Monday

Please make sure your friends and relatives are aware of this forecast
Here is my updated forecast made at 2pm. A few comments:
  • My extreme risk is there, in part, because of the rapid movement of the forecasted tornadoes. If a warning is issued, you will need to respond instantly because the tornadoes will be moving at a mile a minute. 
  • My extreme and high risk areas are a bit farther northwest than some forecasts because of the extreme pressure falls forecast to occur. For example, the Missouri Bootheel is forecast to have an 12 millibar pressure fall in just 11 hours tomorrow. In my experience, that can draw a warm front farther north than the models forecast.
  • As I was explaining the "risk adjectives" I used yesterday, I did a brain freeze when I was typing. For the lowest category, I used the word "marginal" when I intended to write "significant." My apology for the error. 
  • Finally, a word about timing: if you live between I-35 and I-49 and are in my risk areas on the map, be prepared for the risk of tornadoes first thing in the morning Easter. If you are east of I-75, the risk will be during the calendar day Monday. 
Make sure your sheltering area is cleared out, put a couple of bottles of water in it (along with diapers, if necessary) and make sure you wear shoes when you shelter.

Tornadoes are likely during the overnight hours. 

Check batteries for your weather radio. Keep your computer and smartphone charged but take them off the smartphone when you hear thunder for the first time. I highly recommend my "tornado alarm." Instructions for setting up the alarm are here (and, they are very simple). 

Especially if you are in the high or extreme tornado risk areas, please prepare now.

For more information, please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert. 

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