COVID-19: Death Forecast Has Been Slashed

By -
Sunday, just two days ago, I published a piece comparing the University of Washington's coronavirus model's fatality forecast for the states of Kansas and Alabama.
I went back to the model (available here) today to check a piece of information and was shocked by what I found. The model has been re-run. In just two days, the number of COVID-19 deaths forecast to occur in Kansas has been dropped from 640 to 265 -- a tremendous reduction. I double checked, the model's initial parameters are the same, so it is apples-to-apples. The initial parameters are at the very top of the Kansas display.
UW's model projection for Kansas published today
With a current death toll of 25 in Kansas, even the forecast of 265 looks questionable.

While this is certainly good news in the sense that fewer people than forecast are going to lose their lives, it is demonstrating these models are useless as decision tools. 

 Why do I say that?

Here's where we began: A late-January forecast of 1-2 million deaths in the USA.
Axios
What is the new U.S. forecast from today's updated model run? Fewer than 82,000!
That is a reduction of 94% in forecasted deaths (from 1.5 million, the mean number of the initial forecast).

 As I have previously written, these models are useless as decision tools. When the history of CV in the U.S. has been written, we will learn that the use of these models will have done a great deal of harm. And, I think it is fair to state that our reliance on experts, as opposed to carefully and objectively looking at the raw day-to-day numbers, has not served us well.

(c) 2020, Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more