10pm CDT Tuesday Hurricane Michael Update

A Category 4 Hurricane Has Never Struck the
Florida Panhandle. That May Be About to Change

Things have changed quite a bit this evening. Michael has intensified more quickly than expected. The pressures have dropped rapidly and the winds have increased accordingly.

10pm Maximum Sustained Winds are 125 mph and Barometric Pressure is 947 millibars. 

Forecast Wind Speed at Landfall is 130 mph with Gusts to 145 mph. In my opinion there is the possibility the speed could be higher than 130 mph.

Regarding Storm Surge, see below:
The worst storm surge is
expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
of inundation is possible.
Remember, there will be waves of up to 20' on top of the surge. Water like this is extremely destructive as indicated by Jim Reed's tweet below:
That is the damage from Hurricane Ike (also a Gulf of Mexico storm) which was an upper category 2! Please evacuate if you are in a mandatory evacuation area or if you have a "bad feeling" about your location. 

The larger size and stronger winds mean damaging winds will occurring farther into Georgia with serious power failures that may last for days or weeks. 

Finally, don't use "I've been through these before" as a reason not to evacuate. There has never been a storm like this in the Florida Panhandle. 

This is my last update of the evening. 


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