The NWS has issued a large tornado watch from northeast Kansas up to the Iowa-Minnesota border. Strong thunderstorms have already developed (see image below). Note there is a "moderate" chance of strong tornadoes. I urge you to monitor the latest weather information as the first approach of a thunderstorm. Below is the radar from 12:20pm CDT 5-17-17. Stay safe!!

If you do not have the AccuWeather app on your cell phone, get it!!! It is free and it might save your life with National Weather Service storm warnings. If you allow it to, it will follow your location and give you storm warnings even when you are on the road or away from home. It is free! The warning message will appear on top of whatever you are viewing on your phone. You see radar on mine because I was storm chasing (see me in the far upper right area of the image). You could put it next to your bed (with your phone on) and the "message arrival" sound will sound and the message will appear in case a warning for a dangerous storm is issued by the NWS. Did I say it is free?!

Since more than 22,000 people looked at yesterday's tornado forecast, here is a comparison. The red dots are where tornadoes actually occurred. And, here is the forecast of where the tornadoes would be. It appears that all of the tornadoes, except one, occurred in the "higher" risk area. That tornado was captured by the "significant risk" area. So, looks like the forecast worked out pretty well. Of course, a forecast of a tornado is a forecast of an event that can kill (as occurred in Wisconsin outside our forecast area) yesterday or destroy. The images below, from Wichita's KSNW and KAKE TV (top to bottom) show some of that damage in Pawnee Rock, Kansas. It is our hope that these forecasts are helpful in getting people prepared for what might occur and thereby keep the injuries as few and as minor as possible.

Keep in mind that 5% (brown) is the signifiant risk threshold. If you live in these areas, please keep up on the wealth at the first sign of the approach of a thunderstorm.

We had a great time chasing tornadoes earlier today except for one thing...we didn't see any "tornadoes," keeping in mind the circulation must be all the way to the ground in order for it to be a tornado rather than a funnel cloud. One of many funnel clouds that we saw.  Yes, there were tornadoes and yes they did damage (unfortunately). But, we could never seem to get to the correct angle to see the tornado as indicated below. The location of the tornado is indicated by the oval. Our location is the blue circle. But, as the upper radar image indicates, there was a solid wall of rain between us and the tornado. So, we had a great time. But, I don't have the great photos I hoped to have for my readers.

Hope you were able to follow our tornado chase on twitter ( @usweatherexpert ). We had fun and covered a violent thunderstorm that produced a two tornadoes. We were not able to get photos of it on the ground because there was a wall of baseball-sized hail and flash flood-producing rains between us and the tornado. Three tornado watches continue in effect. Blue rectangles are severe thunderstorm watches (large hail and/or damaging winds). This is the end of my coverage because we are getting dinner and then driving back.

The forecast, made at 10:30am, still looks good to me. Please be weather-aware in these areas after about 2pm with the greatest threat between about 4 and 9pm in the western half of the forecast and from about 5 to 11pm elsewhere.

There is a broad area where tornadoes may occur later today and this evening. Here is my forecast: If you live within the purple line, please keep up on the latest weather information at the first sign of the approach of a thunderstorm. The area within the red line has a somewhat higher risk of tornadoes from roughly  4 to 10pm. I am going to storm chase today. You can follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert . I expect to update the blog around 12:30pm or so. Since I will be in the field this afternoon there may not be update after that time.

Here is a fascinating article about a new approach to curing illnesses . There is a subtext to the article that adds to its interest. Jonas Salk's approach to preventing polio, the flu (he invented the flu vaccine), and AIDS treatment was soundly rejected by his contemporaries. So, it seems appropriate this work (which is also being met with envy and mild hostility) is being conducted at the institute he founded.

@usweatherexpert  for reports from the field Tuesday afternoon and evening as well as other severe weather coverage.

If you wish to order an autographed copy of Warnings, please address your email to mikesmithenterprises@me.com

Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's outlook for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes (15%, yellow is the significant threshold) for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The hatched area is where the greatest threat -- especially for tornadoes and very large hail -- exists. You can see that it lines up reasonably well with the tornado forecast as I see it (scroll down). For residents of the hatched area, I recommend making sure your weather radio has fresh batteries and that you be aware of the risk so you can plan for your children or infirm friends or relatives.

No more autographed books?! Read this ! Only in California. Now that it is out-of-print*, if you would like an autographed copy for the graduate or for Dad, we'll happily provide you with one. The cost is $25 which includes tax and shipping anywhere in the U.S. Just email me at: mikesmithenterprises dot com and I'll provide all of the information you need. *A book is out-of-print when the publisher runs out of books, which is the case with Warnings. The publisher, Greenleaf Book Group, has run out at its warehouse. We still have a few to use with my speeches and for people who want autographed copies. Amazon is down to seven copies. There may still be some at the big book wholesalers like Ingrams (where your local bookseller obtains its copies) but we are down to the last few new copies. So, if you want a new copy of Warnings  either as a gift or for yourself, you should probably order as soon as possible.

Tragically, this is exactly how climate science works.

A fascinating 250-year old experiment . Again: science is what can be proven. It has absolutely nothing to do with 'consensus.'