How Did the Forecast Do?

Since more than 22,000 people looked at yesterday's tornado forecast, here is a comparison.

The red dots are where tornadoes actually occurred.

And, here is the forecast of where the tornadoes would be.
It appears that all of the tornadoes, except one, occurred in the "higher" risk area. That tornado was captured by the "significant risk" area.

So, looks like the forecast worked out pretty well.

Of course, a forecast of a tornado is a forecast of an event that can kill (as occurred in Wisconsin outside our forecast area) yesterday or destroy. The images below, from Wichita's KSNW and KAKE TV (top to bottom) show some of that damage in Pawnee Rock, Kansas.
It is our hope that these forecasts are helpful in getting people prepared for what might occur and thereby keep the injuries as few and as minor as possible.


  1. Perception is everything when it comes to weather forecasts. And the public often doesn't think about areal and temporal factors. By that, I mean people don't think a forecast did well because it didn't rain on their head at the specified time. Moreover, most do not understand probability forecasts.
    This is a battle I fought for 42 years of forecasting and its hard to see any improvement in the situation. Hat tip to Mike Smith for at least trying to better educate the public in how to interpret a forecast. This event was superbly forecast as much as 48 hours in advance and warnings were very timely. Nevertheless, the media will manage to dredge up some barely literate souls to say, "It came with no warning".


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