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2:45pm CDT Wednesday: Laura Will Probably Be a Cat 5

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Satellite image from 2:26pm shows lightning (colored symbols) in the east eyewall. By itself, that is an indication of strengthening. At the same time, the Hurricane Hunters have found the pressure in the eye has dropped another 5 millibars, also a sign of strengthening. So, I have come to the highly reluctant conclusion that Hurricane Laura will be a Cat 5 at landfall. Absolutely catastrophic damage will occur in the immediate vicinity of the eye and about 25 mi. east of the eye. If you haven't gotten out, do it now! We are already getting reports of people trapped near the coast. Time has about run out.  If you are in an evacuation area, get it done immediately. NOW!! Make a hotel/motel reservation well inland. There is no point to getting on the road and finding everything already sold out.  Be sure and cancel if you do not need the room. Make provisions for infirm friends/relatives.  Visit the ATM to make sure you have adequate ...

12:45pm: Catastrophic Hurricane Laura is Now a Cat 4 Storm

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Hurricane Laura now has sustained winds of 140 mph. Barometric pressure is down to 950 millibars which is down another 6 millibars just since 10am. It is an incredibly dangerous storm. Storm surge will be more than 20' near and just east of the eye. I believe the sustained winds will be 150 to 155 mph with gusts to 165-170 mph at landfall.  It doesn't matter if you lived through Rita or Audrey: GET OUT! Almost the entire City of Lake Charles will flood.  In the red area below, virtually everyone  will lose power for days or even a week or more. As north as Little Rock there will be many that lose power, again for days. Preparation information information here. Prepare now !  AccuWeather.com AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss caused by Laura  will be $25-30 billion . The estimate is based on an analysis incorporating independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm and is based on a variety of...

Catastrophic Hurricane Laura Safety: 12:50p Wednesday

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As of 12:40pm, Laura has continued to strengthen as is now a Cat 4. Please see blog posts above this for the latest on the storm's intensity.  Scroll down for evacuation and safety suggestions.  -- Original Posting Below --  The message is: Get out if you are in the white area on the map below and along or south of Interstate 10. I don't care if you have lived through a hurricane in the past. Get out. It is the only way to insure you save your life.  From the National Hurricane Center: “Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. Everything we feared is coming to pass: Hurricane Laura is a major hurricane and still intensifying. In the vicinity of the eye, the winds and storm surge will be catastrophic.  Updated satellite image from 9:36am CDT The eye has now "cleared out" -- a very ...

Hurricane Laura: Updated 10pm CDT Tuesday

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For more up-to-date coverage on Hurricane Laura, scroll up on the blog.  -- Original Posting -- Quick 10pm  update: Strengthening continues. Pressure has dropped to 978 mb with sustained winds up to 90 mph. More strengthening expected through the night.  Quick 7pm update: The storm is strengthening. Pressure has dropped to 983mb, which is a considerable drop for three hours. Winds have increased to 85 mph.  The Weather Channel produced this detailed map of the storm surge which will extend as far as 47 miles inland! click to enlarge  -- original posting -- Laura has 70 mph winds and a pressure of 990mb based on the latest Hurricane Hunter flights. However, since the last aircraft departed the storm, Laura is starting to show an eye (dark center in the photo below from 2:01pm). If that continues, the storm will intensify rapidly. The official forecast of the center of the storm looks pretty solid as indicated below. The ...

Hurricane Laura: UPDATE 10:15am Tuesday

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Hurricane Warning for the coastal area highlighted in red.  At 10am , Hurricane Laura  has 75 mph winds. The barometric pressure is 990 millibars. The National Hurricane Center's path forecast is now closer what I have outlined below. The "M" at 7pm Wednesday = "Major Hurricane." They are forecasting wind gusts to 140 mph. Those will cause serious structural damage. With regard to storm surge, they say, There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection System. A storm surge warning is in effect and residents should follow any advice given by local officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rush to completion today -- as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday.  Updated storm surge forecast map.  -- Original posting from 8:15am below. The informatio...

Damaging Wind Threat in the Middle Atlantic Region

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There is a threat of damaging thunderstorm winds -- with the possibility of power failures -- in the Midwest and Northeast today. The threat is concentrated in the orange area from Washington to NYC. To prepare, please ask yourself: what would I need to do if my power was out for 12 hours or more? Make sure your children are indoors before the thunderstorms arrive which will be after 1pm EDT. As always, you can get more information throughout the day by following me on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  If you would like to learn more about how we warn of dangerous storms, go here .

(Hurricane) Laura: Update at 12:10am Tuesday

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I have updated information on now Hurricane Laura at the top of the blog. -- original posting below -- I have reviewed the data and computer models available as of 11:55pm CDT. Laura is already strengthening faster than some of the models forecast to occur. That said, I believe what is outlined below adequately outlines the situation. I will update later this morning.  This was originally posted at 6:30pm Monday. I have updated it as of 8:30pm Monday. This is a comprehensive update on the hazards presented by now Tropical Storm Laura. It should become a hurricane late tonight or Tuesday morning. If you live in east Texas and Louisiana, please review it in its entirety. If you have friends or relatives in this area, please  make them aware of this update. Headlines: Hurricane Watch from Fort Morgan, Louisiana, to Port Bolivar, Texas. This includes Galveston-Beaumont (see below). If I lived in Harris or Galveston counties, I would consider hurricane f...