Two things stand out in the moisture forecast for the next seven days: The precipitation in the Northeast is largely going to be snow adding to this already miserable winter. Some desperately moisture returns to California on Day 5. If I am right about the pattern change (see below), California could get 2-3 opportunities for significant rains from about Day 5 to 16 days out. In fact, the European model shows some nice rains over the next ten days. Note especially the rain/snow in the Sierra.  Dr. Ryan Maue, click to enlarge

At this point in 2011, most everyone in tornado meteorology was thinking it was going to be a slow tornado season. Little did we know the horror that was to begin in April with more than 500 deaths to follow. I'm starting to get concerned there may be some similarities to 2011 with a rough season starting in April. I think we have about another week to ten days of 'winter' and I believe may see a major pattern change at that time. Will 2014 be like 2011? I certainly hope not. But, if it does, I do not want you to be unprepared. For $2.99, this is the best quick read on the subject of what can go wrong and how to make sure it does not happen to your family .  Available at Amazon (the link) and B&N via ebook.

Apparently, lots of people have decided to take Warning s: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather  on spring break with them. As of this writing, Amazon is down to two copies. You can order the hardcover version from Amazon here . If Amazon runs out, Barnes & Noble has it in stock and you can order here . It is available for Kindle and Nook, as well. Of course, you can also get it at your local book store. If they are out, they can order it for you.

Stan Changnon, Illinois State Water Survey, click to enlarge At about this moment, 1pm CST 89-years ago, the Great Tri-State Tornado was touching down in southeast Missouri. There were no tornado watches or warnings of any kind in 1925. With a forward speed of about 70 mph (interstate highway speeds), the people in its path were sitting ducks. Three and a half hours later, 698 people had lost their lives and whole towns were wiped off the map. It is the deadliest documented tornado in U.S. history. It is ironic that Liz Queotone (see below) would pass away today. She is one of the scientists that helped build that storm warning system that would save so very many lives in later decades. If a storm like were to occur today, the death toll would be a fraction of the 689 killed even with a greater population. If you would like to learn more about the nation's worst tornado disaster, go here .

The science of meteorology, and human factors in meteorology in particular, lost a giant today. Ms. Liz Quoetone of the National Weather Service passed away after a battle with cancer. In the mid-1990's I became acquainted with a small, pioneering group of scientists who were trying to understand how humans could best contribute to weather forecasts and storm warnings and then how we could best communicate those warnings so they would save lives. One of them was Liz. Aviation had been using human factors research for years. Meteorology was far behind and there were many that were skeptical of its value. After a meeting Boulder, Colorado, where we first became acquainted, Liz was kind enough to invite me to meet with her in her Norman, Oklahoma, office. We spent an entire morning together swapping ideas. She was extremely gracious with her time and we exchanged ideas on a number of other occasions. When I get information about the funeral arrangements, I will append them t...

Here is this week's and there will likely be one or two by the end of next week. AccuWeather has much more.

Winter is not over! Forecast valid March 23 to 27.