Here we go again... This is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's outlook for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms tomorrow. And, like Thursday, the SPC believes that strong tornadoes may occur in the hatched area and that they may occur after dark. And, for Monday, the threat for severe thunderstorms migrates east. As if that wasn't enough, the flood threat continues east of the Mississippi. The highest flood threat is in the Ohio Valley where the ground is already saturated. In the Northeast AccuWeather predicts that rapid snowmelt will contribute to the flood threat: ADDITION: One of our readers asked for an explanation of the lines on the severe weather charts. The white line is 5%, green is 15% and yellow 30% probability of severe weather (defined, in this case, as a tornado, hail 1" in diameter or larger, or thunderstorm winds of 60 mph or stronger). Hatching means the potential a tornado ≥F-2 intensity, hail ≥2", or thunderstorm winds ≥75mph. 

Tricia Snyder likes "Warnings."  Our contest has about ten more days to run. The rules are here . Good luck!!

Below, I talk about the 99.58% accuracy rate of the National Weather Service's severe weather outlook issued the day before yesterday's severe weather event. Last night, I was watching the storms as they went across the Nashville area. We have relatives in Nashville, including in Mount Juliet. I told Kathleen that "the tornado would pass about five miles south of Mt. Juliet." That was an excellent forecast. Here is the map I posted on this blog last night. I derived this data from radar: The red circle is the circulation that produced the tornado. The arrow is the path of the circulation across the south and east part of the Nashville metro area. This is the path of tornado, produced by the circulation, as determined by National Weather Service survey. At 7:43am Wednesday, more than 39 hours before the tornado, I wrote the following on this blog: Now, here is the best part: Even though this was a  non-standard  tornado situation, there were effective warning...

Here is the latest update on the big winter storm in the West. AccuWeather has details. It is going to be chilly (by Southern California standards) on the Oscar's red carpet.

I'm often surprised to hear Kansas described as "conservative." As a non-native who has lived in other states and travels extensively, I see no evidence that Kansas is especially conservative. Now, a survey from Gallup confirms it. We're aren't even in the top ten in terms of "most conservative" (or "most liberal"). Just like we are geographically, our politics are in the middle.

In Warnings, I make the case that warnings of extreme weather have become much more accurate over the last ten years. Let me give you an example from this week. If you were reading Meteorological Musings Wednesday you viewed this graphic of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's forecast of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds (60 mph or more) with the forecast pertaining to the period from 6am Thursday (yesterday) to 6am CST this morning. Now, here is a preliminary map of the actual occurrences: Compare the two maps. There were 238 reports of tornadoes (red), large hail (green) and damaging winds (blue, with winds of more than 75 mph indicated by black squares). All but one were in the area outlined as having a severe weather threat. Every tornado was not only in the outlook, but they were all in the "hatched" area (along with the black squares with the very damaging straight winds) which denotes damaging tornadoes. Put ano...

The National Weather Service now agrees with the forecasts we have been presenting on this blog that the Ohio Valley could have additional heavy rains that could set up a flood situation.  Much of this region will receive an additional 2 to 4 inches of precipitation over the next six days.