There are ZERO tropical storms, tropical depressions or hurricanes headed to the United States.  This headline couldn't be more wrong! This is the media at its worst.  Please rest easy tonight!

There is a system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico that is beginning to organize. That means a tropical storm or hurricane will probably form early next week. Of course, I will provide full coverage but you may wish to insure you have adequate hurricane supplies and that infirm or elderly friends or relatives will be cared for. 

Here is an update on the looming tropical storm that threatens the eastern Gulf region. I believe there is about a 60% chance it will reach hurricane strength. The map shows the forecast path of the center of the storm. You can also view the National Hurricane Center's just-issued forecast below.  Please note that I have narrowed the forecast path from yesterday with the Mississippi coast no longer in the forecast path and I've moved the eastern boundary up the Florida coast a bit. The storm will likely be a tropical storm as it moves north northeast through the Yucatan Channel between Cancun and Cuba. It may reach hurricane strength before it reaches Florida. Always keep in mind that high winds, storm surge and dangerous surf will occur with any hurricane near the center but also to the east of the path of the center.  What would I do now  if I lived in a coastal area with this storm potential?  Make sure infirm relatives and friends will be cared for.  Refill ...

I am now sufficiently confident to forecast the development of a tropical storm or hurricane in the region outlined above.  Added Note: For my many Houston-area readers, I'm not worried about this storm significantly affecting that metro area.  Added at 5:30pm.  Predictably, there are those who are posting ridiculous model images intended to generate clicks. Please don't fall for them. At this point there is absolutely no reason to believe a super hurricane is going to form. The quality models only forecast a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane.   There is an area of low pressure and tropical thunderstorms south of Cuba that will gradually organize.  I do not believe the storm will develop before Tuesday night or Wednesday and it may take even longer. The area where it will organize will be in the area generally between Cuba and the Yucatan. It will not reach the U.S. before the end of the week.  What would I do if I lived in a coastal area with storm pot...

The amber is the area where tropical storm force winds, in this case 40-45mph, are occurring. The storm may have 50 mph winds or so when it moves inland.  The primary effect of this system will be heavy rain. As much as 7" are forecast to occur near the southern North Carolina coasts. 

Hurricane Francine's warnings have become more extensive. The tropical storm warning has been extended into southwest Mississippi. At 8:25pm, the speed has increased to 77 mph and the pressure has dropped to 977 millibars. These values are still valid at 10:10pm. The maximum sustained winds at landfall are forecast to be 100 to 105 mph with stronger gusts.  Color codes (above): Red = hurricane warning. Pink = hurricane watch. Blue = tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph) Yellow = tropical storm watch. Amber = current area of 40 to 75 mph winds.  Brown = hurricane force winds of 75 mph or stronger In addition to a tropical storm warning, there is a hurricane watch for Baton Rouge and the Greater New Orleans area. The tropical storm warning has been extended to the western Florida Panhandle.  Here are the forecast winds for the Baton Rouge and New Orleans areas.  There will be widespread tree damage and power outages. On the Lake, there is an outside chance of ...

This forecast has been updated. Please go here for the latest forecast .  Here is the 10pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center.  Please note that a tropical storm watch has been issued for the far south Texas coast. Francine is forecast to be an 80 mph hurricane at landfall. However, there is a chance landfall could occur anywhere within te white zone.  I will have more information Monday morning.  ---- Published at 3:30pm Sunday... Based on Hurricane Hunter data we have winds as high as 55-60 mph over the southwest Gulf. However, the winds are not yet circular, so it isn't an official tropical storm as yet. There is little doubt that a tropical storm will develop and a hurricane is possible.   I would not change my forecast from yesterday.  If you live to the west (left) of the orange line, you have the potential for tropical storm, or even hurricane, conditions as the week progresses. I've been getting questions from readers in the Houston area. ...

This forecast has been updated . 2pm Update: The information from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates winds of 45-50 mph, or a little stronger, at the surface. These are tropical storm-level winds. The plane has not yet surveyed enough of the area to know whether winds are in a circular pattern that would indicate a tropical storm.  I will update when more information becomes available late this afternoon or early this evening.  --- original posting --- The National Hurricane Center says there is a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming within the red area. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm and watches may be issued later today.  My original forecast, made yesterday, of a tropical storm still looks good. However, I believe the threat to the Mexican State of Tamaulipas is less than it appeared yesterday with the exception of strong winds and high surf along the immediate coast.  Here is a list of all of the models' potential tracks t...

Note: this forecast has been updated. Go here for the latest.  Update at 6:45pm. The National Hurricane Center now seems to agree with my forecast.  The red area is where they are forecasting an 80% chance of a tropical depression, or stronger storm, to develop sometime during the next seven days. I believe the best chance is in the Tuesday to Thursday period for tropical storm development.  Update at 6pm: The afternoon model runs, among the models I trust, continue to show a good chance (at least 50%) of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf. I will update this forecast Sunday morning.  Update at 1pm: The new run of the models I trust are in and my confidence has only grown that there is a threat of a tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico to the west of the orange line. The rest of this forecast (below) is still valid.  People in the USA and northeast Mexico (west of the orange line) should keep an eye on the weather this week. While t...

There is a 60% chance, according to the National Hurricane Center, of a tropical depression forming this weekend. The models are all over the place and my confidence in this forecast is not high, Nevertheless, if you live in the orange area, please keep up on the weather the next few days. 

As we discussed yesterday, there are two areas where heavy rains are expected to fall this week. In both cases, there is a risk of flooding  The northern area of heavy rain will be caused by slow-moving thunderstorms enhanced by tropical moisture moving north. There is some potential for heavier rains than shown above over parts of Nebraska.  Northern Flood Threat The double-hatched area is where flooding may develop between now and Saturday (please ignore the dots).  Potentially, the worse flooding may occur from southern Minnesota into Nebraska.  Southern Flood Threat The area of single hatching from central Texas to southern Mississippi is where flooding is forecast to occur between now and Thursday night.  The blue area is where "considerable" flooding is forecast later in the week -- including in the Houston Metro and the Golden Triangle. The double hatching is where flooding is forecast to occur from Tuesday through Saturday.  There is also the threat...