A record tornado outbreak occurred two years ago today. Three hundred sixteen died in the South. The death toll was high in spite of excellent forecasts and warnings for two reasons: The tornadoes were unusually strong and hit populated areas (in a region with relatively few basements) and line of thunderstorms occurred in the morning that knocked out power for hundreds of thousands before the violent tornadoes arrived in the afternoon. Without power, tornado sirens, NOAA weather radio and commercial radio stations were off the air (in places). And, even if the local TV station was on the air, if a person in the path didn't have power, there was no way to watch TV or monitor the internet. The morning storms were so strong, they misled some people into thinking it was the tornado event broadcast meteorologists had been forecasting the night before . With the lack of power, that confusion made effective warnings even more challenging. Here is an example of the forecast of...

The death toll from the mid-week tornado outbreak reached 14 today as a Harveyville, Kansas, man succumbed to his injuries suffered Tuesday night.  Meteorologists are monitoring two upcoming rounds of thunderstorms over the next 36 hours. The first will start late tonight a 15% chance of hail an 1" or larger the greatest threat: Tomorrow still looks like a major tornado and damaging thunderstorm wind day. AccuWeather is giving this weather system extra coverage, updated Thursday evening ..  The hatched areas are where tornadoes ≥ F-2 and/or thunderstorm winds of 75 mph or greater are expected.   Here is the experimental forecast radar for 9pm Central time Friday evening: Keep in eye on the weather if you live in these areas!

This is the probabilistic tornado and severe thunderstorm (latter defined as hail ≥ 1" in diameter and/or winds ≥ 58 mph) outlook valid from 6am Friday until 6am Saturday as forecast by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.  Two things ratchet up my concern when tornadoes and severe storms are contemplated:  Overnight Out of Season While very early March is technically "in season," a number of these areas haven't had any severe weather in 2012. Plus, the dynamics (jet stream strength, etc.) of this event may keep it going during the overnight hours with fast-moving (potentially less "lead time") storms.  Breaking it down: the hatched area (in this case) means tornadoes ≥F-2 intensity and/or thunderstorm-generated winds ≥ 75 mph. This far (more than 24 hours) out, those are very high probabilities (45%), as well.   So, if you live in these areas, I urge you to make sure you to conduct the following reviews: Tornado Safety Rules for Home...