Thoughts on the Current Measles Outbreak
Ascel Bio’s team has forecast measles and mumps outbreaks from over 10 forecast stations around the world for more than five years. Ascel Bio has created those forecasts using a variety of data sets, including data from hospitals, state public health agencies, and national governments. In the United States, a review of Ascel Bio’s prior years’ almanacs (a statistical breakdown of cases as opposed to a specific year's forecast) has shown that measles has typically peaked in the March to June timeframe and mumps has had a tighter peak between April and June. In countries with steady vaccination rates and public health attention, measles is “very forecastable”. Here, for example, is Ascel Bio’s forecast for Germany for the period between September 2018 and September 2019. The red line is Ascel Bio’s forecasted weekly “high” number of cases, the blue line is what Ascel Bio forecast would be seen in a “normal” week in Germany, and the yellow line ...