Catastrophic flooding now forecast (pink). "Considerable" flooding is dark blue and "limited" flooding is forecast in the pale blue area. It is possible that I-10 and other highways may be closed in spots before this is all over. I'm certain evacuations will be required.  Torrential rains are expected to occur in southwest Texas during the next seven days. Major flooding is already occurring west of San Antonio.  These additional rains will likely cause record flooding.  The rain in the intermountain region will be of net benefit although isolated flooding (especially in burn scar regions) will occur. 

Radar Image and Commentary as of 10pm (This is the last of the hourly updates for this evening.) Radar image from 10pm. Note the explosion of pink/salmon color from southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas. The following (blue) was written at 9p: I am increasingly concerned about more freezing rain over the southeast half of Arkansas than is currently being forecast. If you live in southeast Arkansas, I recommend making ice storm preparations now.  Radar, plus ground truth data from Arkansas weather stations, show the icing concern is well-founded. There will be icing during the night in at least part of this area. 10:20pm Note: Some of the weather station's wind measuring instruments have already glazed over in southern Arkansas.  Thunderstorms with snow/sleet/freezing rain may occur in OK, AR, TX south of I-40. Ice Storm Warnings in Violet  Violet = ice storm warning (rare) Pink = winter storm warning  Purple = winter weather advisory  Dark Turquoise = wint...

I continue to forecast major snow and ice storm roughly in between I-70 on the north and I-20 on the south. The forecast track of the storm has moved north since yesterday.  Note: I have comments on the meteorology behind this forecast at the bottom.  The winter storm will begin Friday in the southern Great Plains and then spread rapidly east.  The Ice Storm Potential For those who have never experienced a major ice storm, they can do damage on the order of a tornado but over a larger geographic area. Power failures in major ice storms are extensive and can last for days or even weeks.  Here is the best available forecast of freezing rain accumulation. The amounts from this system can be a little on the high side but generally they are reasonable. These amounts are more than sufficient for significant power outages! The NWS system for judging the greatest ice storm danger is in the red area. However, I believe the risk is just as high in North Carolina and Virgi...

This is a weather event for which preparations are absolutely necessary: ice storm, heavy snow, and prolonged extreme cold.  2014 South Carolina ice storm Please note: freezing rain (glaze ice) is forecast to fall in significant amounts at the airline hubs in Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte with significant snow in Washington D.C. If you are planning to fly to those cities (or others in the winter storms maps) I would plan to arrive Friday morning or before or  would get on the phone to reservations and re-route around those hubs. Otherwise, the possibility exists of being stranded for days. Special update regarding the Hurricane Hunter's role in this serious storm at the bottom. Storm Timing This is a forecast radar for 4am Friday as the storm is getting started. Over Arkansas to the Tennessee River the precipitation may still be aloft and not actually begin for a few more hours.  Winter Storm Watches It is rare winter storm watches are issued more than 48 hours in advance bu...

I stayed up to get you the latest rainfall amount forecast for the next 48 hours (12:30a Friday).  Yes, that is another 7-9 inches in the amber area from now until 7pm Saturday evening. Catastrophic flooding is forecast by the National Water Center in a band from Ft. Smith and Mena to Louisville.  If you live in an area which has flooded before, it will likely do so with this "historic" (NWS) flood event. It is necessary to be able to leave on short notice if an evacuation is ordered or if you observe rapidly rising water. Keep in mind the 100% cause of flood deaths is driving or walking through a flooded area.  If you are a logistics manager, forget about getting long haul shipments via truck or rail through this region the next few days. 

Extreme rainfall forecast for Northern California and the southwest corner of Oregon the rest of the week and into early next week. High winds accompanying the storm may cause power outages . Here is a detailed map where flooding is most likely. On some of the higher peaks, as much as 20 inches of rain is forecast to occur.  In San Francisco, amounts will be substantial, generally in the 3 to 4 inches range. However, Mount Tam may have more than seven inches by early next week.  Seattle may have 4 inches or more. And, for the first time this season, Los Angeles will be affected by an atmospheric river but the amounts will only be around a quarter inch with as much as a half-inch in the higher elevations.  This forecast could be more definitive if the Hurricane Hunter aircraft were available to survey the developing atmospheric river over the eastern Pacific. But, even though zero  hurricanes are forecast to occur the rest of hurricane season! See below: NCEP = NWS's ...

Milton approaching the Florida Coast Based on the latest radar and other trends, the eye should move ashore along or between the two arrows. Near the eye and for about 50 miles to the south a catastrophic storm surge will occur.  It is still possible that the eye will move through Tampa Bay. The eyewall will cross the coast with 120 mph winds and a few higher gusts. Power outages will rapidly increase through the evening and overnight hours and the power will be out for days or weeks in most areas.  Milton will be a historic storm. I wrote about its effects on the economy, et cetera, over at LinkedIn .  Most of the power outages up to the moment are due to tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds earlier in the day. But note the green tinting near the coast: that is due to the approaching hurricane. All of that will spread inland this evening.  More than a foot of rain will fall causing severe flash flooding and flooding on major rivers.  The rash of tornadoes ...