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Attention Farmers: Central and Southern Great Plains

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The image above is a National Weather Service average rainfall from  all  of the computer models with the exception of the high resolution ECMWF model, which is the single most accurate model in the world. The output from that model is below. Please note the 8" maximum amounts in Texas. One problem with the averaging process it that it smooths out the maximum amounts. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that much fall in spots as Mexican tropical systems (what will be left of Norma) are usually prolific rainfall producers. However, exactly where those rainfall maxima will be is indeterminate at this time.  The NWS summarizes the situation this way. Given the drought conditions in much of the area, the rain will be greatly welcomed for the 2024 winter wheat crop. However, I would recommend that fall harvest be sped up, where possible, because the areas of heavy rain may damage crops or make it difficult to get into the fields for an extended period of time. 

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts for Next Week

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Every state of the lower 48 will receive significant rain. West of the Continental Divide the easing of the drought will continue. Flooding rains are quite possible in both New England and California. In a number of areas, the 2021 fall harvest will be delayed.  This week's rainfall to 7am is below. If the current pattern holds, the drought in the West will be significantly improved in ten days. The forecasted rains will also make sure that 2022 winter wheat crop east of U.S. 83 will be off to a good start. 

Major Rainfall Event Likely

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Just in time to interfere with the fall harvest, a heavy rain event is likely from Wednesday night of this week (3rd) through Wednesday (10th). While it is impossible to know exact locations, some spots may have more than ten inches.  I will make the forecast more precise as we get closer to the event.