Milton is strengthening rapidly.  Satellite image 9:45am CDT The central pressure is officially down to 991 with 65 mph winds. The cloud pattern is much more impressive than earlier. The main part of Milton is in the (red) circle of clouds at left. There are good meteorological reasons to believe Milton will begin to rapidly intensify this afternoon and tonight. NHC's forecast has been adjusted a bit to the south with winds forecast to reach 125 mph.  While it will be smaller geographically than Helene's, the storm surge will be a major threat.  Preparation Suggestions: Make sure you have adequate food and water for at least a week after the storm. Fill your generator if you have one, with fuel. Fuel your car. Same with your chainsaw if you have one. Trees will fall. Refill prescriptions.  Make sure you know the sea level elevation of your home. If you don't know, use the "compass" app on your iPhone. Put it on the floor of a room of your home and it will tell you...

This is the NHC's latest forecast for Milton. The storm is expected to reach 120 mph speed while over water but the speed at the time of landfall is less clear. There are some factors that may weaken it. That said, the storm will likely reach Florida at a 90° angle which will worsen the storm surge near the eye and to its south.  Current pressure as measured by Hurricane Hunters is 993 millibars. Current winds are 50 mph. I'll have more later today. 

The National Hurricane Center's forecast (upper) is now for Milton to be a Cat 3 at landfall. Its 9:45pm forecast is immediately below. The storm now has 45 mph winds.  My forecast is unchanged from 3:40pm this afternoon. The advance below is also unchanged.  Milton is still a tropical storm at 4pm. Its pressure is 1006 mb and its winds are up to 40 mph. However, it is forecast to develop into a hurricane and strike the west coast of Florida the middle of next week.  What makes the situation unusual is that the storm will be approaching from the west southwest. This means the storm will strike at nearly a 90° angle. That enhances the storm surge and wind effects along and, especially, just to the right (in this case, south) of the eye.  Milton may resemble 2005's Wilma (map below). Peach is Cat 2 and yellow is Cat 1.  Even though Wilma was not particularly strong, its approach angle made the storm more powerful than many people in Florida expected. It did a...

Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Southwest Gulf That image is from 2pm EDT.  Above is the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) projected path. While the black dots indicate a hurricane ("H") with the NHC forecasting a Cat 2, the white "cone" is the area in which landfall will occur. There currently trustworthy models that have it striking the eastern Panhandle and others that have Milton missing the Peninsula to the south and affecting the Keys.  So, I would make sure I have hurricane supplies and make sure infirm and elderly friends and relatives will be taken care of if the storm affects your area. There were too many stories during Helene of elderly people injured or otherwise harmed by being left alone.