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Showing posts with the label QLCS tornado

8:35am Blizzard and Tornado Risk Update

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Tornado Risk. There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the yellow area beginning in the afternoon. If you are in the orange or, especially, red areas you are at risk of strong tornadoes. What makes today potentially deadly is that the storms will move extremely fast: 60 to 70 mph. This means you may have less time to react than usual. So, Clear out your shelter area now.  You will want to have multiple sources for the warnings. Television with a trusted meteorologist, a NOAA Weather Radio, and a smartphone app like AccuWeather's with location services turned on.  Monitor the weather starting this afternoon. Make sure friends and relatives are aware of the threat.  Blizzard Here are the final forecast snow amounts. Travel should not be attempted in the blizzard warning areas (orange, below). Power failures are also possible.  Orange is a blizzard warning. Pink is a winter storm warning. Red is flash flood warnings. Browns are high wind warnings...

11:38pm UPDATE to Saturday's Tornado Risk

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This is very serious. I believe this is a situation where people potentially die. There is a risk of tornadoes Saturday throughout the 5% (brown) area. The 15% (red) area has a serious risk. The hatched area is where violent tornadoes are forecast to occur. When you combine strong tornadoes with rapid forward speeds of 60-70 mph, there may not be adequate warning time. It is vital to monitor the weather all day. I would use TV, NOAA Weather Radio and a reliable phone app like AccuWeather's (with the location feature turned on). Please have your shelter area cleared out and read to go at a moment's notice. I will update Saturday morning.

Tornado and Blizzard Update

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Great Plains - Midwest Blizzard There will be a blizzard in the central U.S. this weekend. The track of the heaviest snow will be on the northern side of the area outlined yesterday. This means Omaha, Lincoln and Ames will be significantly affected. I'll simply present the two best models as their tracks are identical. I have cross-verified this forecast by using some techniques that are independent of the models and am confident in the overall pattern of snowfall. I believe the maximum snowfall in this storm will be about 13" with broad averages of 5-8 inches. However, winds will gust to 55-60 mph in southwest Kansas and up to 40 mph in northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa. This will cause serious drifting of the snow. I expect I-70, I-80, and I-29 will be closed by this storm. Two important considerations: Power failures are possible due to the wind and the potential for snow to stick wires. Life-threatening travel conditions. One word: don't.  Here is a...

Blizzard and Tornado Threat Saturday and Saturday Night

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The first major tornado threat of 2019 plus a blizzard are forecast for Saturday. [3:40pm: No update to the information below] [9:25pm: No update to the snow forecast locations but amounts may be somewhat heavier than forecast. This raises the specter of power failures Saturday into at least Sunday due to the wet snow.] Let's begin with the tornado threat . The yellow areas are where you should plan to monitor the weather Saturday and the hatched area is where strong tornadoes and violent thunderstorm winds may occur.  The storms will move very, very quickly -- perhaps 70 mph -- which means there will be less warning than usual.  There is some possibility the forecast threat area will have to be extended westward in the Ozarks. Blizzard. Winter weather forecasting is difficult, but because this could be a life-threatening storm so I am providing forecasts farther out than usual. The map is a preliminary  forecast of snowfall amounts and locations to 6pm Sat...

Regarding the Tornadoes in Oklahoma This Morning...

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Via NewsOK While tornadoes occasionally occur in the morning in the Gulf Coast states, it s highly unusual for tornadoes to occur in the morning hours as far northwest as central Oklahoma. The type of tornadoes that occurred today were not "supercell" tornadoes (like the big 2013 Moore Tornado). They were what is know to meteorologists as "QLCS tornadoes." You can find an explanation here .