The first tornado rated EF-5 since the 2013 Moore Tornado occurred in North Dakota in June. The 12 year EF-5 "drought" (longest in recorded tornado climatology) has ended.  The tornado's path is in purple. The full story of the rating and the tornado is here . Here's a photo of the damaged train used in the rating. Note the scouring (lighter brown in field on this side of the derailed cars) which only occurs with stronger tornadoes.  The North Dakota EF-5's path is quite similar to the 2007 EF-5 Greensburg (KS) Tornado's path. A map of the latter is below. It is an interesting coincidence the Greensburg Tornado crossed the Union Pacific's "Golden State Route" on the north side of town and blew over railcars parked on a siding.  FYI: The above is a coincidence, not a characteristic of EF-5's. 

Congratulations to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center for their tornado forecast made yesterday morning. The forecast is below (brown) and a plot of tornado locations is in red.  What makes this forecast special is that the North Dakota tornadoes were out-of-season and that this may have been one of the worst tornado outbreaks in the history of the state.  Published later today: 62 tornadoes in North Dakota so far in 2025. 

The area of North Dakota and far northern South Dakota highlighted in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and this evening. Please keep an eye on the weather in that area. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. North Dakota has had an active tornado season and it will continue today. 

The National Weather Service's Issues With Tornado Warnings Have Reached the Crisis Level. Inadequate North Dakota Warning While the National Weather Service's  forecast for tornadoes in North Dakota yesterday was excellent, the tornado warning for the Bismarck area last night left a great deal to be desired. People could easily have been killed by the late tornado warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) radar showed both a hook echo by 10:19 (left) and strong rotation on the Doppler wind display (right) by 10:20. There is no question a tornado warning should have been issued by this time. The hook had characteristics of a debris ball -- making a tornado quite likely.  Unfortunately, the tornado warning wasn't issued for another six minutes.  Meanwhile, chasers and static cameras (see below) were capturing and transmitting images of the tornado. This static camera shows the tornado in the right side of the image. We don't know the exact starting time of the tornad...

The brown area, which includes Aberdeen in South Dakota, has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in this area. 

In addition to tornadoes, here is also an enhanced risk of hail 2" in diameter or larger in the yellow area.  As of 4:50pm, the first thunderstorm is forming on the border south of Bismarck. Please monitor the weather the rest of the evening!

9:40pm  I wholeheartedly believe there will be a couple of tornadoes or more during the night (see my original forecast, scroll down) in addition to tennis ball-sized hail and wind gusts to 75 mph.  Please make sure you have a system to awaken you during the night!! 7:55pm Severe thunderstorm watch, including Chicago, for "one or two tornadoes,"  very large hail and wind gusts to 75 mph.  First tornado warning of the day has been issued.  Follow along @usweatherexpert on Twitter.  Tornadoes along with 4" hail and wind gusts to 70 mph are forecast to occur.  The first thunderstorms of the day are forming in Minnesota, 5:48pm.  --- original posting, still valid --- Tornado Forecast I'm afraid there is a significant tornado risk in the area I have outlined.  If you live in southern Minnesota as well as adjacent areas of Wisconsin and far northern Iowa. There is a warm front that bisects my forecast area. There are also statistical models that su...

It is looking like a winter storm will be developing over the northern Great Plains over the weekend.  Sunday and Sunday Night At lower left is the probability of 4" or more of snow. It is also possible there will be strong winds with this storm. So, I recommend those traveling on I-90 and, especially, I-94 begin looking at alternate routes. Note also the high probability of heavy snow over the Sierra.  Monday and Monday Night With Monday's snow, preliminarily, amounts may be high over parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Again, consider the possibility of re-routing a road trip. If you are planning to fly through Minneapolis, you may wish to consider a re-route through Northwest's Detroit hub, if possible.  Update 4:45pm: The National Weather Service is also raising the alarm .