I've had a half dozen articles forwarded to me starting this morning that contain various complaints pertaining to the forecasts for Helene. I'm not sure what to make of them: with one exception (which I noted at the time), I thought the forecasts were quite good .  That exception was that the NWS was far too slow to pick up on the threat of catastrophic flooding in the Appalachians. But, that was noted on this blog at the time. Published here on the 24th: Meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd wrote in Forbes  today: Addition Sunday Evening: From Virginia Postrel this evening.  As noted above and below, that may have been true pertaining to the National Weather Service but it certainly was not true here nor was it on at least one other site that I viewed last week. I wrote on the 25th, Please look at what I published farther down in the same piece. The red X is in the original. No areas of catastrophic flooding [pink] were on that map nor were there forecasts of "major"...

There will be catastrophic flooding from this system, according the the National Weather Service, in the area outlined in red, below. Please follow local warnings, including evacuation orders.  As of 1pm Eastern, Helene finally has a well-defined eye which means that strengthening continues to occur. The large size of the hurricane = heavier than usual rainfall for a storm of this nature.  As of noon Eastern time, heavy rains have already fallen during the previous 24 hours.  Let's zoom in a bit to the area with the greatest threat.  In Atlanta, 2-3 inches have already fallen. In the highlands to the northeast, as much as eight inches  have fallen already.  Here is a forecast of additional  rainfall from now until noon tomorrow (Friday).  As much as 14.4 inches of rain during this 24 hour period in the mountains. That would bring the total for the 48 hour period to 22 inches but even more will fall. Already one South Carolina lake is overflowing a...

10pm EDT:  Based on the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters, the barometric pressure has dropped another 3 millibars to 971 mb but the winds are about the same -- 85 mph -- as they are when the 5:25 update (below) was written. The storm is still not terribly well organized.  The hurricane is, yet again, attempting to form an eye. It looks like it is fighting off some unexpectedly dry air.  So, the information below is still valid. I'll have another update during the mid- to late morning tomorrow (Thursday). The National Hurricane Center is starting to release its 5pm EDT package of data and forecasts. Helene is intensifying and is now forecast to be Cat 4 at landfall with a catastrophic storm surge up to 20'. In addition, they are now forecasting trees to be toppled as far north as northern Georgia and northwest South Carolina.  Position and Wind Speed Landfall of the eye will be late Thursday evening but  damaging winds will precede the eye and e...

Catastrophic flooding is likely with Hurricane Helene as the storm moves inland. The NWS rainfall amount forecast has been bumped up to more than 22 inches with this storm! Details below based on updated rainfall amount data from the National Weather Service. Above is an updated rainfall amount forecast from the National Weather Service in Washington. The bright purple is where more than 18" of rain is forecast to fall with a maximum of just over 22 inches.  The heaviest rains have been expanded to the north as well as increased in amount.  The rainfall forecast for the Atlanta Metro is now between 7 and 9 inches. Also note there will be serious flooding in the central Florida Panhandle.  In the strongest possible terms, if you live in a flood-prone area in these regions, plan for an evacuation. Major to catastrophic flooding is likely. Get your "go kit" ready now! South of I-20 to the Florida Panhandle and north Florida, there will be trees toppled which will block s...