I love this video of major league ballgirls. My favorite comes up in about a minute where the ball girl literally climbs the outfield padding and makes a spectacular catch while the left fielder stands there looking. 

View of the Aspens from the California Zephyr. The trees will turn over the next few weeks. They are spectacular. A wonderful article about a father spending time with his children on Amtrak is at the link. California Zephyr in Utah In addition to shorter routes, I have taken Amtrak from Oakland to Denver. It is an absolutely great way to spend time with the family. There is an article here about what to expect when taking a long distance Amtrak train.  Highly recommended for family time!

New today. The map below is U.S. drought conditions as of Tuesday.  And, below is the rainfall amount forecast for the next seven days. Generally, drought conditions are forecast to improve east of the Mississippi River with little change to the west. There will be significant rain in the southern High Plains but little in the area where drought conditions are the worst. 

This map shows how long it took for each county affected by Helene to get back to 95% of the homes and customers back to having power. In some cases, it was months before everyone had power again.  This storm took 176 lives directly and another 71 indirectly. The total of 247 contained the trend of mega-disasters that seems to have begun since 2010. 

In the wake of the shooting at a Catholic school in Minneapolis, the mayor has minimized  praying for the victims . We Catholics believe that praying is the very best thing we can do as the Conference of Bishops indicates below.  We can pray for the souls of the victims, the swift and full recovery of those wounded, and for wisdom for our government officials -- especially whose who keep pushing transgender conversations of those under 18 -- which seem to create nothing but misery for all concerned.  Jesus told us to "love our enemies." This means we should include the alleged murderer in our prayers. He was obviously mentally ill. At the end of our lives, we will all want mercy from Our Lord and we should pray and hope Jesus will extend mercy to him. 

... please allow me to say graduations to the happy couple!

Headline at PJ Media today: We know at least some Los Angeles officials have not been completely honest about the fires. For instance, they were telling us the death toll was 31 when it was actually 440 .  Now, with regard to the cause(s) of the fires: The natives are getting restless, however. Angelenos want to know what officially caused these fires, which led to homelessness and despair and contributed to a corrosive and abiding distrust of local and state government competence. If we had a National Disaster Review Board , this wouldn't be an issue. As with the NTSB and aircraft accidents, we would know the cause(s) and we would know how to prevent future fires in similar situations. We -- especially the people of Los Angeles -- would not have to tolerate the games local officials are playing.  It is vital to learn the cause of the fires as soon as possible. Congress, please hold hearings and move quickly on a National Disaster Review Board. 

The orange is where 5 to 7 inches of rain is forecast to fall this week with some flooding possible. No excessive rain is forecast anywhere else in the mainland United States. 

As summer winds down it is a good idea to continue to keep lighting safety in mind.  This screen capture from Tuesday afternoon shows a lighting strike five miles from the closest rain.  So, if you are ready to go swimming or get out on a boat, wait until the nearest lightning is more than 15 miles away. Lightning has been known to travel that far (or even farther) but that is pretty rare. 

For what seems like the thousandth time in my career I must say it again: the white "trails" you see behind a high-flying jet are the product of combustion in the jet engines, not some nefarious "chemical" scheme.  It is essentially same stuff that comes out of your car's exhaust system. I am disappointed in the Daily Mail  for printing these bogus headlines.  Thought I would add this cool photo of planes crossing paths. Please note the contrails (smoke) corresponds to each of the engines not some mysterious "chemical spraying" apparatus. 

Dangerous rip currents and surf will continue the next few days along the East Coast.  These are life threatening.  The 11:35am satellite image shows an eye has redeveloped in Erin with 110 mph winds. The storm is moving north, so it is easy to see that it will brush eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia.  Above is the forecast storm surge.  The coast outlined in blue is under warnings for tropical storm force winds. The brown is the radius of hurricane force winds and amber is the tropical storm force winds.  The wind speed is forecast to increase from 110 mph to 120mph during the next 24 hours. After that weakening is forecast as it races across the Atlantic tis weekend. 

This is the current forecast for Hurricane Erin's path. H = Hurricane M = major hurricane (both in terms of winds). Some strengthening is forecast the next 36 hours and then a gradual weakening.  Blue = tropical storm warning, which includes the North Carolina Outer Banks and yellow is a tropical storm watch (far southeast Virginia coast and northern Outer Banks).  For the mainland United States, the hazard is rip currents. People have already drowned.  Adults: Do not go into water deeper than the bottom of your knees. Children: stay out of the water entirely if it is deep than ankles. 

It isn't climate that is causing the unusually hot temperatures for school kids, it is scheduling the start of school in August, In Kansas, schools began as early as the 11th (!) this year.  When I was young, school ran from Labor Day to Memorial Day, thus avoiding the worst of the heat. Minnesota and Michigan have passed law s requiring those start and end dates and others are moving that direction.  I recommend we fix the scheduling issues before blaming climate change. 

Here is Hurricane Erin at 2:15pm. The storm has restrengthened the past few hours. Current maximum sustained wind speed is 140 mph -- Cat 4 intensity. Additional strengthening is forecast the rest of today and then a gradual weakening of the winds the rest of the storm's life.  The forecast path of the center of the storm is below. After Thursday morning, the storm will race northeast across the Atlantic.  The orange represents tropical storm force winds and the brown hurricane force winds as of 2pm.  Forecast wind speeds (ECMWF model) are below. Please note the "65" on the Outer Banks. That is a peak gust forecast. With the extreme winds forecast by Erin, flooding is likely in Dare Co. of North Carolina and a mandatory evacuation is in effect.  Waves of 80' are possible along the path of this powerful storm. A tropical storm watch and storm surge watch will likely be issued early this evening.  While Erin will drop a lot of rain, the heavier rains will stay off...

11pm: No significant changes to the hurricane forecast as the path is the same as below. The storm will strength to 145 mph tomorrow and then begin decreasing in intensity for the rest of its life. The center of the storm is forecast to pass about halfway between Bermuda and the Outer Banks. A mandatory evacuation is in effect for the Outer Banks (Dare Co.). 5:15pm: 100' waves expected  in the southwest Atlantic.  Erin continues as a major hurricane. At this point it appears the center will be the U.S. to the east, it may come close enough that tropical storm force winds occur along the coasts of North and South Carolina.  Update  as of 4:15pm the new European model shows a peak gust of 57 mph in the North Carolina Outer Banks. This increases the chance of tropical storm level winds in the area as the center of Erin moves to the east.  -- original posting below -- Below is the satellite image of the storm at 1:17pm EDT. Below is the latest forecast.  Curren...

One of the reasons weather science is not respected for its amazing accomplishments is because many are invisible. We may have had a big success earlier this evening.  A thunderstorm developed near St. Louis' Lambert International Airport (KSTL for weather and aviation purposes) about 5:30 and drifted slowly south. It produced a series of downbursts -- which are highly dangerous to aircraft when landing and departing.  Here's the success story: Nothing happened! In 1973, a downburst caused the crash of an Ozark Airlines flight as it was on final approach to Lambert . There were 38 people killed. There was no system for warning pilots of these dangers.  Two weeks ago, we commemorated the 40th anniversary of the awful crash of Delta Flight 191 at Dallas-Ft. Worth on August 2, 1985 . The crash killed 137 with 20+ more injuries. Some of those injuries were horrific. The NTSB determined that the crew flew into the thunderstorm, knowing it was a thunderstorm (both FAA and Delt...

Here is a forecast from AccuWeather showing  when the major dangerous ocean conditions are forecast to occur. The "Stadium Effect" This is what the Hurricane Hunters see when they are in the eye of a strong hurricane. Picture yourself in a stadium with a a retractable roof that is partially open. You are standing on the field and around you are the clouds of the eye representing the bleachers/seats. Looking straight up is the sky.  Update Erin intensified quite rapidly overnight and is now Cat 4 intensity. I am covering it because it will produce dangerous, and possibly damaging, surf and rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. The National Hurricane Center did a great job forecasting the intensification.  Eric is forecast to reach a peak sustained wind speed of 165 mph later today which would make it a rare Cat 5 hurricane.  Reminder: the white outline is the forecast path of the center  of the storm. 

[Update]  You can always count on the climate catastrophists to fall in line: --- original post --- I think the headline speaks for itself. I think the planet can handle Fido and Lucy without too much difficulty. 

.... I learned that there is a term for an irrational fear of tornadoes and hurricanes. It is known as lilapsophobia .  There are some people who really suffer because of that fear. 

We have not and will not be covering Hurricane Erin (now Cat 2) because it poses no threat to the mainland United States.  As we have stated many times, we do not participate in hurricane clickbait, including the extensive clickbait earlier this week. 

AccuWeather has a useful story here . 

Above is a type of lightning bolt that meteorologists call an "anvil crawler." They travel horizontally along the upper part of a thunderstorm(s).  Smithsonian  published an article recently about an anvil crawler that moved from Texas to Missouri -- a distance of more than 500 miles in about six seconds! This lightning event occurred in October, 2017.  If you wish to read the entire article it is here .  UPDATE:   The Wall Street Journal  had a (possibly paywalled) story about the lightning bolt today. 

Los Angeles January Wildfires from NOAA weather satellite You may have seen some of the news coverage the past few days which says ~440 people were killed by the Los Angeles Wildfires, not 31 as previously reported. As I am not a medical statistician, I don't have an opinion as to the quality of the study. However, after years of tracking the consequences of extreme weather events, including wildfires, 31 has always seemed too low to me.  This is the type of issue a National Disaster Review Board would be able to study so as to publish reliable answers. 

The number of emergency management issues during the July 4 Texas flash floods were legion.  As a result, Texas Senator Charles Perry has introduced a bill reforming Texas' emergency management . The bill seems to be a real step forward. I would also add the following to the legislation: Each of the three people in line to be the emergency management leader in a major situation, as defined in the bill, must  have a tone alert weather radio with a battery backup and  an app that will transmit storm warnings for the EM's location.  Each of the three persons must attend the yearly National Weather Service spring training sessions. An equivalent commercial class(es) would be acceptable.  If a EM is ill or on vacation, they must  notify the other two.  Other states should insure they're in conformity to the principles in the proposed legislation. 

In a just-issued forecast from the National Hurricane Center, the red path is where a tropical storm or hurricane could develop the next seven days. Please note that even after 7 days, any storm will still be far off the United States coast.  I would not worry at all about this possible storm at this point.  Of course, I will update later this week. 

The real estate listing is here . We'd love to have you in Kansas. 

The dark blue area is where the NWS is forecasting "considerable" flooding the next three days (now until Sunday morning). Please ignore the orange dots. The hatched area is where more limited flooding is expected during the next week.  Five day rainfall amounts up to eight inches are forecast.  If you live in or near a flood prone area please monitor the weather forecasts the next few days.