Before the Winds Subside the Complaints Begin

By -
Weather science just a splendid job for the people of Louisiana, far east Texas and Arkansas. Hundreds of lives were saved. Yet, even while 100+mph winds were still blowing, the gripes started. I wish to comment on them and then put Hurricane Laura "to bed."

The complaints center around two themes:
  • The forecast was bad. Laura wasn't what was expected.
  • People didn't know it was coming; there was nothing done to help the poor. 
The emails below are a small sample to give you the idea. I had to report one to Twitter; it was vile. 

Let's begin with the shelters and buses. I don't know from where this came. There were many photos and stories in the media documenting people boarding buses provided by the government to shelters as far away as San Antonio. Yet, there were people upset about this from as far away as Japan.

As far as I can tell, the evacuations went off pretty much without a hitch.

With regard to the quality of the forecasts, I believe they were pretty good. You can see for yourself by scrolling down on this blog or reviewing the National Hurricane Center's Laura archive which is here. As to some of the details like storm surge, we suffer from broken instruments due to the storm. For example, one tide gage near the coast measured a surge of 9' when it failed. The official wind instruments at the Lake Charles airport failed at 139 mph. Over the next few days, NOAA and others will put people in the field to survey what actually occurred and we can do a better job of measuring what was forecast versus what actually occurred.

As important as electricity is to modern society with head indices in the South over 100° today, the forecast of power failures was excellent.

Actual outages at this time:

Regardless of the Laura forecasts' details, the bottom line is the warnings saved hundreds of lives. How do we know? We have a good comparison:
Hurricane Audrey damage, 1957
In 1957 a poorly forecast Hurricane Audrey came ashore during the night in southwest Louisiana along much the same path and almost the same time of day as Hurricane Laura. These result? At least 431 deaths (some sources day more than 500).

Audrey was forecasted to strike on the 27th of June but, instead, struck early in the morning of the 26th, catching most everyone by surprise. There was even an unsuccessful lawsuit against the Weather Bureau. Hundreds died due to drowning in the storm surge or when trees fell on the their homes.

Even though Hurricane Laura was stronger than Audrey, the death toll from Laura, currently 4, is tiny by comparison.

In 2020, in spite of all of the things that have gone wrong, the storm warning system worked well for Laura and hundreds of lives were saved. In addition to meteorologists, emergency managers and local officials deserve a great deal of credit. If you have a moment, go to Twitter or Facebook and leave compliment for the meteorologists you depend upon. They will certainly appreciate it!

 It is frustrating that, time and again, meteorology continues to be the science that 'gets no respect.'

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more