Editorial: Some Thoughts About Hurricane Sandy One Year Later

By -
Much of Lower Manhattan was without power for days after Sandy.
Photo via Wikipedia.
"There are many people who are still suffering," said Ann Dibble, director of the Storm Response Unit at N.Y. Legal Assistance Group. "We are seeing a lot of homeowners who are struggling to get insurance payments, whether it's homeowners or flood. We're still helping people with FEMA appeals, believe it or not." 

Who wrote those words in the past week? A conservative outlet like Daily Caller, Breitbart, or the Wall Street Journal's editorial page? No, it was the liberal New York Daily News. 

When Hurricane Sandy came onshore, with more hope than experience, the New York Times editorialized, "A Big Storm Requires Big Government" and extolled the virtues of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

As anyone who has read Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather knows, unless you count the number of PR photo ops FEMA creates for itself by hiring local photographers right after a storm occurs, it fails at most everything it does, especially when measured against its self-generated hype. 

One might come to the conclusion (after reading Warnings as well as this piece) that I enjoy beating up on FEMA. I concede they make an easy target with all of their grandstanding -- while thousands are suffering -- in the wake of a major disaster. But, there is a far more important point, and that is:

Reasonable people can disagree as to the importance and role of FEMA. But, as long as people are told FEMA will come riding in to take care of them, they are disincentivized  to provide for themselves. Every family, when faced with a forecast of a disaster, should prepare with a full tank of gas, food and water for at least a week, and freshly refilled prescriptions. A tremendous amount of suffering would be reduced if everyone followed that rule. 

The second thing I wish to mention is the U.S. "weather enterprise" (National Weather Service, broadcast meteorologists, and private sector weather companies) did its usual outstanding job with the forecasts of Hurricane Sandy, although mistakes were made by the NWS with the threat communications. If you don't believe the forecasts were excellent, scroll back through the postings on this blog the last few days, and look at how accurate the forecasts were and how solid the preparatory suggestions turned out to be.

The third thing is my original editorial, "The National Weather Service Should Not Investigate Itself" was certainly validated by subsequent events. But, it is not only the NWS; the actions of FEMA, Red Cross, state agencies, and, yes, private sector weather companies, should be constructively evaluated by an independent agency similar to the National Transportation Safety Board. That is the only way we insure that we, as a nation, don't keep making the same mistakes over and over again. 

Hurricane Sandy was by no means the "worst case scenario." In 1938, the Great Hurricane, at Category 3 intensity, destroyed huge areas of New England. This will eventually (one year or one hundreds years from now, it will occur) happen again. When it does, will we be prepared? I hope so, but I have my doubts. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more