Saturday, July 20, 2013

Dr. Roy Spencer's Climate Testimony

Here are some highlights from Dr. Roy Spencer's Thursday testimony which I found to be quite compelling. I'm emphasizing an especially important point in bold type.

The lack of statistically significant warming in the last 15 years  is sometimes glossed over with the claim that the global temperature record has a number of examples of no warming (or even cooling) over fifteen year periods. But this claim is disingenuous, because the IPCC presumed radiative forcing of the climate system from increasing CO2 has been at its supposed maximum value only in the last 15 years. In other words, when the climate “stove” has been turned up the most (the last 15 years) is also when you least expect a lack of warming.
It is time for scientists to entertain the possibility that there is something wrong with the assumptions built into their climate models. The fact that all of the models have been peer reviewed does not mean that any of them have been deemed to have any skill for predicting future temperatures. In the parlance of the Daubert standard for rules of scientific evidence, the models have not been successfully field tested for predicting climate change, and so far their error rate should preclude their use for predicting future climate change.
The claim has been made that the extra energy from global warming has mostly bypassed the atmosphere and has been sequestered in the deep ocean, and there is some observational evidence supporting this view. But when we examine the actual, rather weak level of warming (measured in hundredths of a degree C) at depths of many hundreds of meters, it implies relatively low climate sensitivity. Part of the evidence for this result is satellite radiative budget measurements which suggest that more intense El Nino activity since the 1980s caused an apparent decrease in cloudiness, which allowed more sunlight into the climate system, which caused a natural component to recent global warming. Since the global energy imbalance leading to ocean warming since the 1950s is only about 1 part in 1,000 compared to the average rates of solar heating and infrared cooling of the Earth, it should not be surprising that natural climate cycles can cause such small changes in ocean temperature. Even if our ocean temperature measurements of deep warming of hundredths of a degree over the last 50 years are correct, and mostly due to human greenhouse gas emissions, they probably do not support the IPCC’s pessimistic view of future warming.
Dr. Spencer also reproduces a plot of all of the IPCC's 73 climate prediction models. Since 2004, not one of them has been cold enough (see the purple rectangle).
click to enlarge
In order for something to be "science," there must be a falsifiable hypothesis. Considering that drought and disasters are not increase (see Dr. Roger Pielke's testimony, scroll down) and temperatures are far too warm when they should be rising, at what point is the IPCC/Al Gore hypothesis falsified?!

1 comment:

  1. Climate changes continuously. The mistake is believing that human activity has any significant influence.

    Four papers on the web provide some eye-opening insight on the cause of change to average global temperature and why it has stopped warming. (The latest perceived up tick must be considered in light of historical average global temperature measurement uncertainty, equivalent s.d. approximately +/- 0.1 K arising from the measurement methodology) The papers are straight-forward calculations using readily available data up to May, 2013.

    The first paper is 'Global warming made simple' at . It shows, with simple thermal radiation calculations, how a tiny change in the amount of low-altitude clouds could account for half of the average global temperature change in the 20th century, and what could have caused that tiny cloud change. (The other half of the temperature change is from net average natural ocean oscillation which is dominated by the PDO)

    The second paper is 'Natural Climate change has been hiding in plain sight' at . This paper presents a simple equation that, using a single external forcing, calculates average global temperature anomalies since they have been accurately measured world wide (about 1895) with an accuracy of 90%, irrespective of whether the influence of CO2 is included or not. The equation uses a proxy which is the time-integral of sunspot numbers. A graph is included which shows the calculated trajectory overlaid on measurements.

    Change to the level of atmospheric CO2 had no significant effect on average global temperature.

    A third paper, ‘The End of Global Warming’ at expands recent (since 1996) measurements and includes a graph showing the growing separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising average global temperature.

    The fourth paper exposes some of the mistakes that have been made by the ‘Consensus’ and the IPCC


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