Wednesday, July 10, 2013

They Keep Repeating the Same Incorrect Forecast

Remember after Katrina how we were going to see the number and intensity of hurricanes increase? Headlines like the one above were endlessly repeated: Hurricanes were going to get worse.

Of course, it didn't happen.

The graph below from Dr. Ryan Maue, shows that hurricanes lessened after Katrina (2005) and remain at a low level.
click to enlarge
Now, we have -- again -- the same old forecast that hurricanes are going to increase in number and intensity due to global warming.

Of course, climate science hasn't even been able to get its temperature forecasts correct as temperatures peaked in 1998 and leveled off at that time.
It would be nice if climate science would show a little appropriate humility about its lack of forecast success rather than continuing to make outlandish 87-year forecasts. Below is a graph I showed at the American Meteorological Society meeting in Nashville ten days ago that shows (click to enlarge)

that not a single one of the IPCC's computer models predicted how cool world temperatures would be in the early 2010's (blue dot with small arrow).

If they can't even come close to getting it right in 12 years, there is zero reason to be confident in an 87-year forecast!

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