From what I have read and observed, Tim was not as reckless as some of the "Media" affiliated chasers. There were times when watching the "Storm Chasers" program that he did get too close sometimes. If they were in the same area as the Weather Channel team it appears that that would have been to the E to NE of the circulation. While a great place for pictures, it leaves you no place to retreat if anything happens. As you noted in a previous post the tornado can rotate around the mesocyclone following the sinusoidal path.
My perception is that there is significant pressure within the Media based chasers to get more extreme footage of tornadoes. This pressure results in greater and greater risk taking through competition for the closest and perfect shot. Now it appears that this aggressive mentality has resulted in the deaths of three people (pending the investigation of course). Much like war correspondents placing themselves in danger for a story and pictures, these media reps have now passed the same threshold. The real question is do you need to get that perfect back lit shot of the tornado knowing that you are on the E to NE side with very few avenues for escape? For me I would say no. My only hope is that Tim was placing instrumentation in the path for data gathering, and that the data is usable. It would make his and the two other members of his team's sacrifice to have been more that just some video and pictures for a reality show.
I'm confident Tim was attempting to do good Friday. The tornado was shifting in its movement (scroll down to see explanation of sinusoidal path). For those that were close, options likely diminished very quickly.
Several seem to want me to write more about this and I'm working a piece right now.
I think the pressure to get the best tornado video is the result of two things: One, the mass market availability of HD video. And two, ironically, the availability of accurate advance warning data.
I think once the market gets saturated with up-close HD tornado video, the pressure to get new videos will go down.
Finally, I think that the tornado videos do serve a useful educational purpose-- they show how quickly a tornado can drop and intensify, how it can appear invisible initially, how violent the inflow winds can be and how debris can choke the escape route and destroy a vehicle. All these things are useful things for the layperson to know and see.
I think back to the Boxing Day Tsunami. Lots of people stood there watching the ocean recede, because they had never seen a tsunami before. Now that there is ample video, no one will stand on the beach gawking at a disappearing ocean ever again.
Personally, I think the guys who invest in armored vehicles do the most useful "mass market" service. Yes, they take enormous risks. But there's no illusion that I can safely do what they do with a mere passenger vehicle. And I can see exactly what I never want to experience first hand.
Another Day With a Tornado and Giant Hail Risk The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The risk may be a bit higher in Texas than in Oklahoma or Arkansas. The hail outlook has hatching where hailstones more than 2" in diameter or larger are forecast to fall. The red area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk of 1" or larger hail.
Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes. This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds. 6:15pm NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening. 5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...
Note: this forecast has been updated. Go here for the latest. Update at 6:45pm. The National Hurricane Center now seems to agree with my forecast. The red area is where they are forecasting an 80% chance of a tropical depression, or stronger storm, to develop sometime during the next seven days. I believe the best chance is in the Tuesday to Thursday period for tropical storm development. Update at 6pm: The afternoon model runs, among the models I trust, continue to show a good chance (at least 50%) of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf. I will update this forecast Sunday morning. Update at 1pm: The new run of the models I trust are in and my confidence has only grown that there is a threat of a tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico to the west of the orange line. The rest of this forecast (below) is still valid. People in the USA and northeast Mexico (west of the orange line) should keep an eye on the weather this week. While t...
Mike,
ReplyDeleteFrom what I have read and observed, Tim was not as reckless as some of the "Media" affiliated chasers. There were times when watching the "Storm Chasers" program that he did get too close sometimes. If they were in the same area as the Weather Channel team it appears that that would have been to the E to NE of the circulation. While a great place for pictures, it leaves you no place to retreat if anything happens. As you noted in a previous post the tornado can rotate around the mesocyclone following the sinusoidal path.
My perception is that there is significant pressure within the Media based chasers to get more extreme footage of tornadoes. This pressure results in greater and greater risk taking through competition for the closest and perfect shot. Now it appears that this aggressive mentality has resulted in the deaths of three people (pending the investigation of course). Much like war correspondents placing themselves in danger for a story and pictures, these media reps have now passed the same threshold. The real question is do you need to get that perfect back lit shot of the tornado knowing that you are on the E to NE side with very few avenues for escape? For me I would say no. My only hope is that Tim was placing instrumentation in the path for data gathering, and that the data is usable. It would make his and the two other members of his team's sacrifice to have been more that just some video and pictures for a reality show.
Richard,
ReplyDeleteI'm confident Tim was attempting to do good Friday. The tornado was shifting in its movement (scroll down to see explanation of sinusoidal path). For those that were close, options likely diminished very quickly.
Several seem to want me to write more about this and I'm working a piece right now.
Mike
I think the pressure to get the best tornado video is the result of two things: One, the mass market availability of HD video. And two, ironically, the availability of accurate advance warning data.
ReplyDeleteI think once the market gets saturated with up-close HD tornado video, the pressure to get new videos will go down.
Finally, I think that the tornado videos do serve a useful educational purpose-- they show how quickly a tornado can drop and intensify, how it can appear invisible initially, how violent the inflow winds can be and how debris can choke the escape route and destroy a vehicle. All these things are useful things for the layperson to know and see.
I think back to the Boxing Day Tsunami. Lots of people stood there watching the ocean recede, because they had never seen a tsunami before. Now that there is ample video, no one will stand on the beach gawking at a disappearing ocean ever again.
Personally, I think the guys who invest in armored vehicles do the most useful "mass market" service. Yes, they take enormous risks. But there's no illusion that I can safely do what they do with a mere passenger vehicle. And I can see exactly what I never want to experience first hand.