From what I have read and observed, Tim was not as reckless as some of the "Media" affiliated chasers. There were times when watching the "Storm Chasers" program that he did get too close sometimes. If they were in the same area as the Weather Channel team it appears that that would have been to the E to NE of the circulation. While a great place for pictures, it leaves you no place to retreat if anything happens. As you noted in a previous post the tornado can rotate around the mesocyclone following the sinusoidal path.
My perception is that there is significant pressure within the Media based chasers to get more extreme footage of tornadoes. This pressure results in greater and greater risk taking through competition for the closest and perfect shot. Now it appears that this aggressive mentality has resulted in the deaths of three people (pending the investigation of course). Much like war correspondents placing themselves in danger for a story and pictures, these media reps have now passed the same threshold. The real question is do you need to get that perfect back lit shot of the tornado knowing that you are on the E to NE side with very few avenues for escape? For me I would say no. My only hope is that Tim was placing instrumentation in the path for data gathering, and that the data is usable. It would make his and the two other members of his team's sacrifice to have been more that just some video and pictures for a reality show.
I'm confident Tim was attempting to do good Friday. The tornado was shifting in its movement (scroll down to see explanation of sinusoidal path). For those that were close, options likely diminished very quickly.
Several seem to want me to write more about this and I'm working a piece right now.
I think the pressure to get the best tornado video is the result of two things: One, the mass market availability of HD video. And two, ironically, the availability of accurate advance warning data.
I think once the market gets saturated with up-close HD tornado video, the pressure to get new videos will go down.
Finally, I think that the tornado videos do serve a useful educational purpose-- they show how quickly a tornado can drop and intensify, how it can appear invisible initially, how violent the inflow winds can be and how debris can choke the escape route and destroy a vehicle. All these things are useful things for the layperson to know and see.
I think back to the Boxing Day Tsunami. Lots of people stood there watching the ocean recede, because they had never seen a tsunami before. Now that there is ample video, no one will stand on the beach gawking at a disappearing ocean ever again.
Personally, I think the guys who invest in armored vehicles do the most useful "mass market" service. Yes, they take enormous risks. But there's no illusion that I can safely do what they do with a mere passenger vehicle. And I can see exactly what I never want to experience first hand.
2am While the risk of tornadoes may continue during the night, this will have to end my coverage. Note the risk of tornadoes farther east later today. 1:35am Wednesday: Tornado watch will likely be issued for the outlined area, including the Kansas City Metro. Make sure you have a way to receive tornado warnings the rest of the night. 11:55p Tuesday: New tornado watch has just been issued for most south central (including Wichita), southeast and east central Kansas. This watch is in effect until 7am Wednesday. This is the overnight tornado threat we've been talking about. I am now providing additional updates on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert . --- original posting (still valid) --- Now until 7a Wednesday The tornado risk has decreased in Oklahoma south of I-40. 7am to Noon Wednesday For Wednesday morning, there is a significant chance of tornadoes in western and, especially, northern Missouri. It is unusual to have tornadoes during the morning....
--- This Forecast Has Been Updated --- You Will Find the New Forecast Here After a quick look at the new data this evening, I believe the forecast is still good. There may be light amounts of freezing rain in north central Texas as far south as Waco. It will not be enough to cause power outages but -- if it occurs -- it will make roads very slick. The snow amount forecasts haven't changed. I believe DFW will receive 1-3" with heavier amounts as you go northeast. I-30 will become a mess for its entire route. --- original forecast still valid --- Here are the latest NWS winter weather warnings and watches as of 3:15pm Note: the white "hole" in southwest Texas will be filled in with a purple winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow. Color codes: Pink = winter storm warning Dark green = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory Bright green = ongoing flood warning Dark blue and bright turquoise = freeze warnings. As expected, t...
A major windstorm is forecast for Oklahoma and Texas Sunday. This has the potential to cause widespread power failures. Please prepare now. More information below. 5:35pm: Particularly Dangerous Situation watch due to wind gusts forecast to reach 105 mph and with hail 5" in diameter. Tornadoes also possible. If you live in a mobile home, now is the time to determine your sheltering situation. I urge you to shelter before warnings are issued (spend the evening with friends or family). Power outages are likely. A mobile vehicle from the National Severe Storms Laboratory has already measured a gust of 90 mph! 3:05pm Update: Computer models have consistently increased their forecasts of peak wind gusts pertaining to north central Texas this evening. Wind gusts of 110 mph are possible. If correct, widespread power outages are likely. First Watch of the Day Pertaining to the Derecho In addition to the threat of tornadoes, wind gusts of 80...
Mike,
ReplyDeleteFrom what I have read and observed, Tim was not as reckless as some of the "Media" affiliated chasers. There were times when watching the "Storm Chasers" program that he did get too close sometimes. If they were in the same area as the Weather Channel team it appears that that would have been to the E to NE of the circulation. While a great place for pictures, it leaves you no place to retreat if anything happens. As you noted in a previous post the tornado can rotate around the mesocyclone following the sinusoidal path.
My perception is that there is significant pressure within the Media based chasers to get more extreme footage of tornadoes. This pressure results in greater and greater risk taking through competition for the closest and perfect shot. Now it appears that this aggressive mentality has resulted in the deaths of three people (pending the investigation of course). Much like war correspondents placing themselves in danger for a story and pictures, these media reps have now passed the same threshold. The real question is do you need to get that perfect back lit shot of the tornado knowing that you are on the E to NE side with very few avenues for escape? For me I would say no. My only hope is that Tim was placing instrumentation in the path for data gathering, and that the data is usable. It would make his and the two other members of his team's sacrifice to have been more that just some video and pictures for a reality show.
Richard,
ReplyDeleteI'm confident Tim was attempting to do good Friday. The tornado was shifting in its movement (scroll down to see explanation of sinusoidal path). For those that were close, options likely diminished very quickly.
Several seem to want me to write more about this and I'm working a piece right now.
Mike
I think the pressure to get the best tornado video is the result of two things: One, the mass market availability of HD video. And two, ironically, the availability of accurate advance warning data.
ReplyDeleteI think once the market gets saturated with up-close HD tornado video, the pressure to get new videos will go down.
Finally, I think that the tornado videos do serve a useful educational purpose-- they show how quickly a tornado can drop and intensify, how it can appear invisible initially, how violent the inflow winds can be and how debris can choke the escape route and destroy a vehicle. All these things are useful things for the layperson to know and see.
I think back to the Boxing Day Tsunami. Lots of people stood there watching the ocean recede, because they had never seen a tsunami before. Now that there is ample video, no one will stand on the beach gawking at a disappearing ocean ever again.
Personally, I think the guys who invest in armored vehicles do the most useful "mass market" service. Yes, they take enormous risks. But there's no illusion that I can safely do what they do with a mere passenger vehicle. And I can see exactly what I never want to experience first hand.