A Very Troubling Computer Model

If I had to choose a single computer model to use when analyze and forecast tropical storms and hurricanes, it would be the European Consortium for Medium Range Forecasting Model (ECMWF). It is showing the system now in the Bay of Campeche moving north and strongly intensifying.

This is the forecast for Monday evening showing either a hurricane or tropical storm south of Louisiana.

But, on Thursday, the storm is forecast to have weakened, but has hardly moved.
Another hazard: Tropical storm or hurricane indicated by arrow. It is what is now
tropical storm #14 (see satellite graphic above).

It is too soon to worry about wind speeds or wind location. It is not too soon to be concerned about more heavy rain in the region, given the 15+" that fell with T.S. Lee.

It would be wonderful if the storm were to take a more western path and move into Texas. That is not out of the question.

But, any path farther east than Texas will result in major problems.


  1. Mike, I think you are missing a huge element of that forecast solution. If that verifies, the winds over much of Texas will once again have a large component from the north. This would continue to advect very dry air into Texas. Couple this with a tightening pressure gradient and you have the recipe for a continued, and probably worsened, fire situation across central Texas.

    So, not only is this forecast depriving Texas of the much needed rain; it's actually going to exacerbate an already bad situation.

  2. Good point, Patrick. I hadn't thought of that!


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