The hurricane on the Jacksonville NWS radar 4:27pm EDT. Here are the peak gusts in mph that I am forecasting (with help from the ECMWF and Dr. Ryan Maue) for the remainder of Matthew's path. click to enlarge The hurricane is weakening with a central pressure of 949 mph. Flooding is likely  in coastal areas. Here is the forecast for additional  rainfall. This rainfall plus the heavy rains of the last 30 days will allow trees to be uprooted much more readily. Power failures will be more widespread than would normally be the case with winds of these speeds. 

From Twitter a few minutes ago: Daytona Beach yesterday versus today. What you are seeing on the right is storm surge in action. The weather stations at the Daytona Beach airport has been knocked out by the storm. The eye of Matthew at 9:51C/10:51E is shown below. It is skimming the coast. If it was just 15 mi. farther west, it would be catastrophic. As it is, 300,000 600,000 homes and businesses are without power this morning. The map below shows how electrical crews from various utilities are being routed into the Southeast to help restore power. Yes, there are already people complaining about the forecast. Here are 125 mph winds just off the coast. While storm warnings/forecasts have improved tremendously, we do not have the reliability where we can say winds capable of catastrophic damage will stay 15 mi. away. So, what s next for Matthew? Max winds are 120-125 mph with slow weakening expected. Hurricane warnings (red) are out as far north as the southern North...

Here is the latest forecast for Hurricane Matthew. The eye of the storm at 6:15am CDT: And, here are the Doppler wind measurements. The winds just off the coast are as high as 120 mph. As the image below indicates (click to enlarge), the catastrophic winds are just 17 mi. off the coast. While Matthew has weakened to Cat 3 status, any deviation to the west in its forecast path would bring the very high winds to the coast. Continue hurricane precautions ahead of the the storm and for about 40 mi. behind the eye.

Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy...Happy... Meteorologists get skewered all of the time because of our supposedly bad forecasts. Even though we will get skewered because the catastrophic winds (see below) are just off the coast (another 15 mi. farther west and we would be talking about crushed homes, etc.) I'm thrilled to have missed this forecast south of Cape Canaveral. As a human being, I so wanted the forecasts for Sandy and Katrina to be wrong. I didn't get my wish on that one. We are not out of the woods yet. More in a while.

..I have received multiple comments on Twitter, including one from a newspaper reporter, pertaining to the National Weather Service Wichita's lack of a tornado forecast moments before the NWS Storm Prediction Center issued a tornado watch. That tornado watch included the region for which the NWS has forecasting and warning responsibility. Yes, that is curious. Below is a screen capture from Twitter that shows my feed. There were only seconds between the issuance of the tornado watch and our local office's non-forecast. Moments later, the first tornado warning was issued was issued by the NWS Wichita. Happy to report they got that one right. I just checked and the Storm Prediction Center's tally has 16 reports of tornadoes in Kansas, so far, most in the Wichita NWS's area of responsibility. Before I get asked, their forecast of the highest flooding potential -- the hatched area in the uppermost graphic -- was also incorrect (too far southeast). More than 7...

If the eye makes it all the way inland and then moves NW paralleling the coast, there will be catastrophic damage. Power will be out for more than a week in many areas. Travel will be extremely difficult because of trees and debris blocking roads.  If you haven't already, evacuate if you live in a coastal county if directed to by local officials! Matthew is moving west at the present time. The westward movement is temporary as shown above. The storm has been strengthening during the afternoon and, when that occurs, storms will often take a temporary left turn. Given my current forecast, here is what the peak sustained  winds for the storm will look like. Gusts could be another 15-20mph higher. Right now, I'm not posting about the storm north of the Fla.-Georgia border. I'll do that tomorrow morning. Finally, here is the NWS forecast of the storm total rainfall with Matthew. Flooding likely.