click to enlarge Based on the satellite and radar patterns along with Doppler wind velocities, it appears that Isaac is strengthening a bit. It looks to me like sustained winds are up around 80 mph. The storm is moving northwest at 10 mph. Looks to me like the center will pass over or south of New Orleans.

A reasonably impressive eye and a central pressure of 976 mb -- normally associated with a category 2 hurricane -- yet, has only reached hurricane status in the last five minutes. Sustained winds are 75 mph. Given the warm water and low pressure, I'm still concerned there could be a quick increase in intensity to hurricane strength before the center goes inland. Regardless of whether it is quick or slow, I do expect the storm to reach hurricane intensity before the eye crosses the shore.  We now have a tornado watch. It includes New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile and Panama City.  We are already getting reports of flooding in some coastal areas due to storm surge! When you view the surge maps below, remember this is the predicted height of the surge.  Wave heights are not included and high/low tide are not included. To take an example, if a storm surge of 7' occurs during a high tide of 2' above MSL, there is a water level of 9' above MSL. Then if there are 6...

Some meteorologists were commenting on Isaac and said it has set a record for the tropical storm with the lowest barometric pressure. A storm with a pressure of 976 mb should be a hurricane. Isaac is one meteorologists are going to study for a long time. So, where does the storm go from here?  Here is the current position and forecast path. Here is a forecast of wind gust speeds at 6pm this evening. The storm is predicted to be a hurricane at this point. The wind speeds are in knots (1 kt. = 1.15 mph; 50 kt. = 58 mph). Gusts of 90 mph or higher cover the entire Mississippi Delta. Gusts of 65 to 70 mph have reached the barrier islands, the south part of the City of New Orleans and eastern Lake Ponchartrain, assuming this is a perfect forecast. The storm will continue to move northwest and the higher winds will move across the City of New Orleans if this forecast is correct.  Of course, there will be widespread power failures and there is a threat of spillover from th...

click to enlarge This is a forecast of the wind gust field for Isaac valid at 1pm Tuesday. Forecast gusts to 75 knots (86 mph) will have made it to the mouth of the Mississippi River at this time and 60-65 mph gusts are just reaching the State of Mississippi barrier islands. The storm is forecast to move almost straight northwest from this point which is dangerous for New Orleans, especially if any strengthening occurs. Keeping in mind the counter clockwise direction of wind rotation, there will be an extended period of north winds across Lake Ponchartrain. Assuming the new levees hold, things are fine. But, they have never been tested.

I don't want this to be 100% about Isaac, so I'm presenting this month's dumb science study: Why men don't like vegetables as much as women .

Here is a forecast of wind gusts (in knots; to get mph multiply by 1.5) for 8am CDT.

Tweeted by a friend who is a a hurricane research mission for the University of Oklahoma: