This evening in the one-year anniversary of the horrible mid-air crash in Washington, D.C. The National Transportation Safety Board announced it has concluded its investigation into the mid-air collision of a U.S. Army helicopter and an American Airlines flight from Wichita to Washington's Reagan Airport. Sixty-seven people lost their lives. It was the first mid-air collision in the United States involving a commercial airliner since 1960. There is more on the crash here .  U.S. Figure Skating With the Olympics beginning in a week, it is worth noting that a number of members of the U.S. Skating Team were on board after their yearly competition, which was held in Wichita. According to media reports, 28 people associated with U.S. skating were killed in the crash.  A prayer vigil was held in Wichita today and the Diocese of Washington held a special Mass for the victims and their families. The City of Alexandria announced today that it is going to build a memorial on the bank ...

7:10pm. The Governor of Washington has declared a state of emergency.  Dr. Cliff Mass is an expert on the subject and has been writing timely updates. Let me refer you to his blog .  -- 2:30pm PST -- The NWS has upgraded its national flood forecast for the next seven days. Color code: Pink = catastrophic flooding. In much of this area, the rivers will break the previous record stages. At least two rivers will break the records by five feet! Dark blue = considerable (by geography) flooding.  Light blue = limited flooding.  If you live in thee areas, I urge you to keep up on the latest information and, if you live in the pink or dark blue areas, be prepared to evacuate at a moment's notice. 

The area in red has an enhanced risk  of flash flooding from heavy thunderstorms through 8am Friday. Please keep up on the weather in these areas. 

The Department of Agriculture has announced it is moving most of its employees outside of Washington , DC. Here's where they are going: Raleigh Kansas City Indianapolis Ft Colins Salt Lake City I vote for doing this across the federal government. For example, there's no reason the Department of Transportation should be in Washington. 

Note: This forecast was a total bust as Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington Department of Meteorology explains .  -- original posting -- -- original posting -- Tornado Safety Recommendations  The best place is the basement of your home under heavy furniture (such as a pool table).  If you do not have a basement, go to the lowest floor of your home and get into a closet or bathroom in the middle of the house. The idea is to put as many walls a possible between you and the storm.  If you live in a mobile home, find other shelter such as at a friend or relative's house. Please monitor the weather throughout the day.  This is the hail forecast. The hatched yellow area has a significant risk of hail 2" or larger in diameter. The yellow area has a significant risk of hail 1" or larger. Safety recommendations: Put your car in the garage or under a carport. Bring in law furniture or other items that could be damaged by hail. Stay in during a thunderstorm as h...

NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a significant chance of hail 2" or larger in diameter in the hatched area Wednesday afternoon or evening.  As hail of this size is unusual in the Northwest, here are some safety suggestions: At the first sign of a thunderstorm, such as thunder, bring in the kids. Large hail can cause injuries.  Put your car in the garage when it is not in use.  Put indoors lawn furniture and other items that could be damaged. I'lll update tomorrow. 

The NWS forecast for the Northwest shows a wet week ahead. The rain/snow is needed in many areas. 

Sample TCAS display, red is the "threat aircraft" From: Rockwell-Collins During the last couple of hours, I have been asked by the news media about certain aspects of last night's horrific crash near Washington's Reagan National Airport. I have decided to share this information with you. I am taking the statements made by Washington officials that the helicopter was in the wrong place at their word and using that in my analysis. I want to emphasize that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are the experts for whom I have a great deal of respect and it is their job and not the job of politicians or the FAA to investigate this crash. I am posting this with a goal of counteracting some of the horrible misinformation about this event. As someone who absolutely loves Wichita, I recommend reading Dion Lefler's excellent essay about how we are feeling today . It gives the non-technical side of the story.  The last U.S. mid-air collision involving a U.S. airlin...

President Trump a few moments ago addressed the families and friends of those affected by last night's horrible crash and offered words of condolences from himself and the First Lady. He assured families their loved ones were in "the embrace of a loving God." I would also like to offer my prayers and condolences to the loved ones of everyone aboard both the American Airlines jet and the Blackhawk helicopter. It is a terrible coincidence that so many aboard were from the U.S. and Russian figure skating community (the U.S. championships were held in Wichita this past weekend).  Finally, the courage and respect of the first responders (below) was something all Americans should be proud of. Having to fight the river's current with the water temperature 34° in a desperate quest to find survivors is far beyond the call of duty. The photo is from Rep. Ben Crenshaw's twitter account.  In addition, world champion Russian skaters (per the Kremlin) Evgenia Shishkova and Vadi...

The U.S. Figure Skating Championships were held in Wichita this past weekend. These are the people who skate for Team USA in the Winter Olympics. There is more here . The story just gets worse and worse. There were a number of skaters and coaches aboard from both the U.S. and abroad.  Horrible aircraft mid-air crash this evening: American Airline's flight 5342 from Wichita to Washington-Reagan crashed into a military Blackhawk VIP helicopter. Of course, Wichita is my favorite city and I had friends on that flight as recently as last week. Please offer your prayers for all involved, including the first responders.  As of 10:55pm, 19 bodies have been recovered. That number is confirmed. No survivors have been found.  American Airlines has set up a number for families and others:  (800) 679-8215.  Reagan National Airport will be closed until 11am Eastern. Video of the crash and of the air traffic control screens are just below. I used several sources to compile rel...

Flash flood "high risk" forecasts are rare but they account for a greatly disproportionate number of flash flood deaths.  The area Northern California outlined in purple has a high risk of flash flooding Thursday and Thursday night. It is a good time not  to travel and to stay -- to the extent possible -- on higher ground.  The area in red has a "moderate" risk of flash flooding tomorrow and tomorrow night.  This is part of a larger area where flooding is possible the next seven days.  Here's the forecast rainfall for the next seven days.  Please note that, unlike the previous forecasts of the rain/snow from this "atmospheric river," the heavy rains extent south into the Sierra. There will be heavy snow in the higher elevations.  Zooming out, here's the forecast precipitation through next Wednesday. Please note that moderate to heavy forecast rains extend into the L.A. Basin. 

Powerful low pressure system off the Washington Coast.  It is unusual to have lighting with these winds storms but the yellow and orange symbols are just that.  Update: There are about 140,000 people  already without power as trees topple.  Poweroutage.us Eastside Fire Here's the flood forecast for the next seven days.  The diagonal lines are where "limited" (NWS's word) flooding is forecast to occur starting Thursday. The dark blue area is where "considerable" flooding is likely starting Wednesday night into at least Friday. In fact, there is a "high" risk of flash flooding in the same area. It is vitally important that people in the forecast flood area -- especially in Northern California -- prepare for this event.  Via WeatherBell, here's the NWS's forecast of rainfall amounts in the dark blue area. Taking a wider view of things, here's a view of forecast rainfall from British Columbia to Los Angeles.  Of course, I will continue to u...

Extreme rainfall forecast for Northern California and the southwest corner of Oregon the rest of the week and into early next week. High winds accompanying the storm may cause power outages . Here is a detailed map where flooding is most likely. On some of the higher peaks, as much as 20 inches of rain is forecast to occur.  In San Francisco, amounts will be substantial, generally in the 3 to 4 inches range. However, Mount Tam may have more than seven inches by early next week.  Seattle may have 4 inches or more. And, for the first time this season, Los Angeles will be affected by an atmospheric river but the amounts will only be around a quarter inch with as much as a half-inch in the higher elevations.  This forecast could be more definitive if the Hurricane Hunter aircraft were available to survey the developing atmospheric river over the eastern Pacific. But, even though zero  hurricanes are forecast to occur the rest of hurricane season! See below: NCEP = NWS's ...

Here is this week's rainfall forecast for the Northwest.  Above is the forecast for Northern California.  At least localized flooding is likely late in the week. 

The above is one of my favorite episodes of The Simpsons  where conman Lyle Lanley (modeled after Prof. Harold Hill in The Music Man ) swindles the town of Springfield to vote for a defective monorail.  With ballot measures to build new or remodel stadia in Washington and Kansas City this spring, Lyle and Harold come to mind. Twitter wag "Iowahawk" published a great series of comments: Look, I love the Kansas City Chiefs. I've probably been to 120+ home and away games. But, the taxpayers of Jackson County, Missouri, bought Arrowhead Stadium for them -- which is fine. The taxpayers largely paid for a major remodeling. The Chiefs sold naming rights to GEHA for the field for huge dollars.  In my estimation, if the Chiefs want "an even better Arrowhead" then they should pay 100% of the cost.  The Royals' downtown stadium is a bad joke for a bad team. If the Royals want to abandon the stadium the taxpayers purchased for them, they should pay 100% of the cost wi...

The Amount of Snow Has Been Increased to As Much as 12 Feet! -- original post -- Major Storm, Including Blizzard Conditions, in the West Wind Gusts to 100 mph and Snows of More than Ten Feet Are Likely Color codes: Orange = blizzard warning Pink = winter storm warning  Gold and Brown  = high wind watches/warnings  Green = flood watch Dark Blue = winter storm watch  Purple = winter weather advisory Light Brown = wind advisory  All travel in the Sierra should be completed by 9am tomorrow (Thursday) due to extreme snowfalls (more than 10 feet  in some areas) and high winds. That is why the rare blizzard warning is out. Radar at 12:22pm PST: Total Precipitation (rain and the moisture in snow) now until Monday morning: Note the 10+ inches of rain amounts on the California-Oregon border. More than ten feet  of snow is likely in the Sierra resulting in road closures including, perhaps, Interstate 80.  The precipitation is expected to continue beyond Mond...

The map shows the forecast precipitation between now and 4pm PST Sunday. More than ten feet  of storm are possible in the Sierra with this storm. I -- strongly -- recommend that travel through the Sierra be completed before 11pm Wednesday.  Orange is a blizzard warning. Pink is a winter storm warning. Blue is a winter weather advisory. The gold and browns are high wind watches and warnings. 

There are two storms (#1 and 2) near the coast that will move inland bringing rain -- snow in the higher elevations -- to the West.  Storm #2 is racing east and will help trigger severe thunderstorms with a risk of tornadoes late Tuesday . Storm #1 is causing rain in Southern California today that will continue into tonight.  Storm #3 looks like a monster with extreme mountain snow and, in places, flooding rains in the West. Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Great Plains. Blizzard possible in the Rockies and/or northern Plains.  Here are details. These are the precipitation maps from 4pm this evening to 10pm Sunday.  Warnings are already going out about 6 to 9 FEET of snow in the Sierra Friday and Saturday. It is too soon to get specific as to where the severe thunderstorm, and possibly tornado, threat may develop. I will cover that beginning about Thursday. I'll start covering the blizzard threat on Wednesday.