How Did That Tornado Outbreak Forecast Work Out?

One week ago today, we were warning that an unseasonable tornado outbreak was likely in the south central United States. The graphic below was included. It was the NWS SPC's forecast of tornadoes on the 10th (Friday) though 6am on the 11th.
Now that the NWS has had time to gather all of the tornado reports (red dots), we can see the forecast was outstanding. Perhaps the brown (5%) tornado area should have been a little farther northeast but it was otherwise about perfect.

Below is a detailed map of the storms that occurred both Friday and Saturday.

Forecasting out-of-season tornado outbreaks is difficult. SPC meteorologists and meteorologists throughout the weather enterprise deserve our thanks.


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