Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Serious Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today and Tonight

Tornado Risk Now Until 1am
Reminder: The significant threshold is brown (5%). In this area you should monitor the weather the rest of the day. Yellow (10%) is an enhanced risk. Red (15%) is a serious risk.
The hatched area is where violent tornadoes are forecast.

Also, if I lived in the northernmost row of counties of Oklahoma and the southernmost row of Kansas counties west of I-35, I'd keep a special eye on the weather, too. There is a warm front that now extends from Alva to Ponca City, OK. If that starts to move back north and pressures begin to fall sufficiently I would not be surprised if the 10% area would have to be extended into that area.

But, tornadoes are not the only danger today.

Damaging Wind Risk
On this chart, yellow (15%) is the significant threshold for thunderstorm generated wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. Red is 30%. Purple is a 45% risk.
The hatched area is where wind gusts of more than 75 mph are forecasted.

Large Hail Risk
The significant threshold for 1" or larger hail is yellow (15%). Red is 30% and purple is a serious 45%. The hatched area is where giant hail is forecasted. Consider that in the northern part of the hatched area, giant hail could be driven by winds of more than 75%!

I no longer live-blog storms. However, I will be providing additional information on Twitter @usweatherexpert and I invite you to follow along there.

There is a chance I will storm chase this afternoon if the aforementioned warm front becomes active this afternoon.

If you live in these areas, I urge you to prepare accordingly. 

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