The headline in The Tampa Tribune: Florida Takes a Wicked Blow   This was one of the worst storms in the history of the South and East. Florida had winds of over 100 mph and storm surges of more than 10 ft. in place. A great recap of the storm is here . Why do I bring a major storm 19 years ago to the attention of blog readers? Because this storm was incredibly well forecast. I happened to be in Tampa giving a speech to a major insurance company four days before the storm began. From the podium I told them that winds of 90 mph would occur and the tides would resemble a hurricanes. I also told them to, if possible, take an earlier flight Friday (the final day of their conference) rather than waiting until Saturday because they might get stuck (many did). This wasn't because I was a brilliant forecaster. It was because the National Weather Service's models, which were just starting to ingest inflight-data from aircraft and other data sources, combined with the models' higher ...

As this is a very slow-moving storm, the rains are not over yet. Here are the forecast rains for the next 48 hours: [caption id="attachment_7925" align="aligncenter" width="310" caption="Rainfall from now until 7am CDT Friday"] [/caption] However, I thought it would be worthwhile to see how the heavy rain forecasts, issued on this blog last week, have worked out so far. My first posting on this storm was six days ago on March 15. I posted two maps, the National Weather Service's forecast rainfall amounts as well as the European model's forecast. That posting was titled " No Flooding? Pass the Salt, Please " because of a story that ran in a number of newspapers that day forecasting a low chance of spring flooding while this heavy rainstorm loomed.  Click on the link to see those forecasts. Now, here is the 4-day rainfall amounts for the period ending at 7 o'clock this morning.  [caption id="attachment_7926" align=...

There is a long article at opinion journal.com today about today's college students' lack of interest in the environment compared with baby boomers'.  Researchers found that, when surveyed decades ago, about a third of young baby boomers said it was important to become personally involved in programs to clean up the environment. In comparison, only about a quarter of young Gen Xers--and 21 percent of Millennials--said the same. Meanwhile, 15 percent of Millennials said they had made no effort to help the environment, compared with 8 percent of young Gen Xers and 5 percent of young baby boomers. The author, James Taranto, cites economic reasons for the lack of interest. He quotes several activists supposing that today's students are insufficiently indoctrinated.  I believe both are incorrect. The reason young people are less interested in the environment than baby boomers is because the environment is so much cleaner and healthier than when we were children. As amazing ...

Here is a complete storm overview, the last posting of the night. AccuWeather regional radar (below) at 9:20pm shows storms with large hail and heavy rain (arrows) on the southwest edge of the storm system between Utopia and Cherry Mountain. Flash flooding may develop with these storms. The thunderstorms near San Antonio are weakening. From Dallas to eastern Oklahoma, very heavy rain is falling. An additional 5 inches may fall from now until noon Tuesday in the area indicated by the blue oval. Here is a summary of NWS watches/warnings: [caption id="attachment_7921" align="aligncenter" width="186" caption="9:26pm, NWS watches/warnings"] [/caption] Yellow = tornado watch. Red = tornado warning. Maroon = flash flood warning. Amber = severe thunderstorm warning (large hail and/or damaging straight-line winds). Greens = various flood watches and warnings, check local information.    

Radar form 9:04pm CDT. The storm that produced the large cone tornado has weakened, is now north of San Antonio (north of Leon Valley) moving NNE. There is a second tornado-warned storm (purple polygon) also moving NNE. This storm's rotation has weakened considerably the last 15 minutes. However, it should be monitored closely as it approaches southwest Bexar Co.  This will be the last storm update of the night. 

A new, weak, hook has formed west of Lackland City, moving NNE to NE. It is outside of the official tornado warning, but be prepared to take shelter if the weather appears threatening in your area.   There is another strong storm farther southwest that I am monitoring. 

Radar at 8:36pm. Damage reported at the tornado icon. Storm is moving NE and the tornado threat has lessened for the moment. The hook has dissipated and the rotational couplet is just about gone. However, the storm could develop a new couplet, so people in the northern part of the tornado warning (purple) polygon should be prepared to go to a place of safety.  And, here is photo of tornado: