UPDATED 11:05 pm Hurricane Lee Update

By -
Here is the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast for the path of the eye of Hurricane Lee out 5 days. 
M = major hurricane.  H = hurricane.  (S) = tropical storm center that isn't a tropical storm*. 

Addition at 8:30am Tuesday. This is the composite probability forecast of the location of the eye beyond NHC's forecast. It is from all of the models' ensemble forecast. Thanks to Tomer Berg.

I want to give my readers some info on what to expect beyond the NHC forecast. 
Map of the possible location of 50+ mph winds.
Within this area will be a zone of 60 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph.
It is too soon to know exactly where the strongest winds will be.

This will not be a Cat 5 wind speed hurricane or anything like it when it moves through New England and/or the Canadian Maritimes. It will be like 2012's Hurricane Sandy where the wind field will be spread out over a wide geographic area. The maximum category will be 2, it will more likely be a 1. However, even if it is a 1, that is sufficient to cause power outages over a vast area.

Below is the earliest likely arrival of 40 mph or stronger winds:

What I recommend at this point if you live in the Maritimes or in New England coastal areas:
  • Get plenty of cash. ATM's and credit card readers do not work without electricity. 
  • If you have a gasoline-powered car, keep it filled with fuel. 
  • In Nor'easters, the worst winds usually come from the north through east. In this storm, the worst winds will come from south through southeast. There will also be much more of a storm surge and corresponding flooding. There will be 10-25 feet waves near shore on top of the storm surge. Please plan accordingly as they can be highly destructive.
  • Put together a "go kit" in case you have to evacuate. 
Remember, you can always re-deposit the money if the storm does not affect land and you'll eventually use the fuel. 

The next update will be in the early afternoon Tuesday.


*Note the white (S) meaning tropical storm force winds but not "technically" a tropical storm. Because of the quirks of U.S. homeowners' insurance, it is quite possible NWS/NOAA will try to pull another "superstorm" switch, regardless of whether it is meteorologically justified. Why? Because if it is a hurricane, some homeowners' insurance will not cover any damage. So, they may try the nonsense they did with Sandy where they...
  • Call it a "superstorm" (wink, wink),
  • Insurance covers the damage,
  • President Biden tries to get Congress to pass a law that will reimburse the insurance companies out of our tax dollars (as Obama did with Sandy),
  • The people of Kansas, Oregon and New Mexico, as well as other states thousands of miles from the damage area, end up paying for it. 
The whole hurricane/homeowners mess needs to be reformed but that is a topic for another day. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

[1:10am Update] Tornado Forecast for Rest of the Night

By -
Image
Thank you  for coming to read my tornado coverage from Saturday and Saturday night. As there were about 100,000 brand new readers, please allow me to introduce myself. I the retired Sr. VP of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions and retired Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. Specialized for 50 years in extreme weather forecasts and warnings. I invite you to bookmark this site:   https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/    Timely forecasts of tornadoes, floods, blizzards and hurricanes are provided. On slower weather days we talk about global warming, science and issues of interest to society. On Sundays, we usually lighten things a bit. For real-time storm warning bulletins, you can follow me here:   @usweatherexpert .  Thanks again  for reading! ---Last night's Coverage --- After 16 straight hours, I must call it a night. All of the information below is current as of 1:10am. Thank you for reading and goodnight.  As of 12:35am, much of south central Oklahoma has no electr
Read more

First Tornado Watch of the Day Issued

By -
Image
Unfortunately, the forecast is working out. A tornado watch is already in effect in Oklahoma and Texas.  This watch is in effect until 1pm.  Thunderstorms are developing in the southeast Texas Panhandle. They will move northeast and strengthen. Please keep a close eye on the weather in these areas.  I'll have comprehensive forecast up in 60-90 minutes.
Read more

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more