"What If Russia Loses?"

Unexploded Russian bomb at children's playground in Ukraine
While I am not a foreign policy expert by any means, I think some thoughts are worth passing along:

This brief essay, What If Russia Loses?, is well worth your time. An assessment of the current military situation is here

It is highly encouraging to me that the West and freedom-loving nations all over the world have clamped tough sanctions on Russia even without a strong American president. I'm pretty confident that Putin did not anticipate that reaction and it is why we need to make sure that Putin has a face-saving way out so that he can declare 'victory,' get out as quickly as possible with as little damage to Ukraine as possible, and let back to normal or, better still, be overthrown in a coup. 

There are three winners, maybe:

  • Taiwan. I fully expected China to make a move on Taiwan, maybe very soon. Given the world's reaction to Russia's attack on Taiwan, I think the Chinese will reconsider. If all of these nations -- especially Switzerland, which even stayed neutral through WWII -- have come down on Russia, they know they will get the same treatment...or even stronger. 
  • American farmers. Wheat futures are way up and, if Mother Nature will give us some rain in the winter wheat belt, our farmers will get a badly-needed chance at decent incomes after several poor years. 
  • Climate Sanity. The cartoon below is, I believe, an accurate assessment of the mood of people who are tired of exaggerations of the urgency of the global warming issue and of windmills as the solution.

Germany has announced that it will reactivate three nuclear reactors scheduled for retirement. Several other nations have made similar announcements. 

Today, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its latest report. Those who are regular readers of the blog know that I have respected the IPCC and have referenced the reports -- favorably -- on a number of occasions. However, today's is vastly over-the-top yet and it receiving criticism from others who have previously been fans. 

While CNN, BBC and the usual suspects have followed Big Climate's  
narrative, I think this report is so over-the-top that it will backfire. It will also be difficult to sustain the "we need to panic over global warming" narrative when Putin is threatening to use nuclear weapons (per the Biden Administration, remember to wear masks and keep social distancing when in the bomb shelter!).

While I continue to believe there are many good reasons for decarbonizing energy, I believe that nuclear and hydro will get a boost from current events and windmills will be the "loser." 


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