Normally, I let the NWS do its thing and I do mine. However, there has been a huge difference between our two 24-hr heavy rain forecasts. Their new flash flood forecast basically admits their forecast is too far south:
As always, Mother Nature will determine which forecast is correct.
-- Original Posting --
Let's begin with the immediate threat which is an extreme rainfall event from 9am today until noon Tuesday (May 21). The resulting flash flooding will be severe and life-threatening. Below is the highest risk area.
If it were me, I would be hunkered down tonight. Travel after dark will be extremely hazardous and not recommended. However, if you live in a highly flood-prone area, you may want to consider moving to a friend or family member's house before dark.
Below is my forecast (i.e., the European model plus my forecast superimposed as vertical lines) for rainfall the next seven days.
Remember: If you encounter flooding, turn around, don't drown.
What to do?
- Prepare a "go kit." Put needed and easily transportable items in your car or near your car where you can grab it and move quickly.
- If you have to evacuate, turn off the main power and water. Locate them now if you are not sure where they are located.
- Keep your automobile fully fueled.
- Get extra cash.
- Make sure your prescriptions are refilled.
- Know your destination and make sure your path is not flooded.
- Keep your smartphone charged.
I urge you to take this seriously. Areas will flood that have never flooded before. Please make sure vulnerable friends and relatives know of the risk. Prepare accordingly.