announcing a no-evacuation, “shelter in place” plan that suggests a stunning level of confidence that a worst-case scenario won’t happen, at a time when it remains, meteorologically speaking, very much in play." -- Brendan Loy
|Official National Hurricane Center issued 7pm CDT|
New Orleans is under a hurricane warning (see graphic above). There is a real possibility that Isaac will affect New Orleans on the seventh anniversary of Katrina.
So, after Katrina -- in a city where many peoples' "place" is below sea level -- New Orleans is going to shelter-in-place as Isaac approaches!? With a new levee system that has never been tested?! No evacuation?
Brenden goes on to write,
In a bizarrely low-key press conference that seemed more focused on calming residents’ “anxiety” and vaguely telling them to “be prepared” (and then making of a series of mundane announcements about municipal matters like trash collection and parking restrictions) than on advising them to take specific, concrete steps commensurate to the risk of a possibly major hurricane potentially making a direct hit on America’s most hurricane-vulnerable city starting in about 48 hours...
Please read his entire post here.
Earlier today, I gave politicians credit for putting evacuations in place and coordinating emergency management. I may have been too kind.
Here is the issue:
- The forecasts for Andrew were excellent. The response was horrible.
- The forecasts for Katrina were excellent. The response was disastrous.
- Now, like in Katrina, an evacuation is being danced around. See a pattern?
In Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather I devote three chapters to what went wrong during Katrina. I urge Mayor Landrieu to read it -- tonight. [the Kindle version is here and the Nook version is here] Otherwise, he seems destined to repeat some of Mayor Nagin's mistakes if the account of his performance at today's news conference is any indication.
Part of the motivation for writing Warnings and When the Sirens Were Silent is to insure these preventable disasters don't keep occurring.
To my readers on the Gulf coast: If you are in the hurricane warning area, be prepared to evacuate. If it looks like a major hurricane is approaching you'll want to evacuate regardless of what local officials say.