Please note that Arctic sea ice is back within its long-term average. In 2007, Al Gore predicted that all  Arctic sea ice would disappear by the summer of 2013.

UPDATED:  2pm EST:  A high risk of flash flooding should be taken very seriously. This forecast is valid from now until 6am Tuesday. The area of "high risk" has been extended into northern Georgia, including Atlanta. 41% of flash flood fatalities occur in the rare "high risk" flash flood areas. In addition 90% of the damage occurs in those areas. Whatever you do, don't drive into floodwaters.   If you live in an area prone to flooding, please have a "go kit" ready that you can quickly throw into the car and move to higher ground.

An outstanding article from Forbes , here .

Here is the forecast rainfall between now and 2pm Tuesday. click to enlarge Given the wetter than usual conditions over this region the last month, the flooding could be severe in places. Please prepare accordingly! Update 2:45pm. Moments after posting the above, the NWS sent this. The red area is where there is a significant risk of flash flooding from sunrise Monday through sunrise Tuesday.

Wow, 150 years of serving the nation. Thank you, National Weather Service! 1871 Weather Map Over the course of its 150 years, the NWS has saved millions of lives and enhanced our standard of living. In 1870, we knew very little about weather science. Day-to-day forecasting was mostly extrapolation. Tornadoes and hurricanes were nearly impossible to forecast. The employees of today's National Weather Service are extremely dedicated and use modern science to provide important services to the public-at-large. The story of the quest to learn to warn of major storms is here . So, thank you National Weather Service. Here's to the next 150.

The National Weather Service and the National Severe Storms Laboratory, for about the last five years, have working on a new concept for tornado warnings. In it, they want tornado warnings "in motion." It is explained by the video above. There are upsides and a number of challenges with this concept: They talk about thirty-minute warnings even though all  of the research says 13 to 15-minute "lead times" (the interval from when the warning is issued to when the storm arrives) are ideal. If that is the case, why does the NWS want to do this?  Just because they can doesn't mean they should. People will only stay in the basement, closet or bathtub for so long.  This can only be done with computers. What happens if there is a computer failure? I also worry it takes the human forecaster too much out of the loop.  Current tornado warnings are, in general, less  accurate than a decade ago. Why does the NWS wish to do this when they could be spending the effort on...

Here is a tweet of mine from Thursday evening. And, here is a headline from the Tampa Bay Times  today. This small tornado (EF-1 intensity) carved a nine-mile path through the Tampa Bay area. This particular situation brings up several important points as we begin tornado season 2020. This type of tornado is known to meteorologists as a "QLCS" (I won't bother you with the details). It used to be considered "unwarnable." Now, we can often do a decent job, especially in areas like Tampa that have a TDWR or other high-resolution radar that provides data at one-minute intervals.  While I urge everyone in a tornado warning (red polygon) to take cover when a warning is issued, if you are in an area that is being singled out (in this case, Pinellas Park and Gandy), move very quickly to shelter! Again, while there are exceptions, we as a science are getting better at focusing on the areas at greatest risk.  However , I recently read that emergency managers ...