Hundreds, if not thousands, owe their lives  to  the science of  meteorology this morning. There is a very good case to be made that more than 3,000 would have been killed by Hurricane Michael absent weather science.  Since Hurricane Katrina, when former New Orleans mayor (now inmate) Ray Nagin blamed meteorologists for the huge death toll in Katrina --when weather science actually did superb job -- I have taken up the mantle of obtaining for meteorology the the respect it deserves. We are, by far, the most successful of the predictive sciences and thousands of lives are saved each year by our work. In spite of that, meteorology is often the "Rodney Dangerfield of Sciences" -- we get no respect . Consider the list below of the most intense hurricanes to strike the United States and the number of fatalities they produced. Labor Day Hurricane (1938), 423 deaths, quality of warnings: C-  Hurricane Camille (1969): 254 deaths, B+ warnings Michael, ...

While the peak winds are gradually decreasing, the storm continues to knock out power as it moves northeast toward central Georgia. This will be the last update on Michael.

Unfortunately, the coverage of Hurricane Michael took precedence this morning. Here is an update with regard to the potential for major flooding in northeast Oklahoma and Arkansas. Here's the problem, the river in Kansas and northern Oklahoma are at or above flood stage. Those rivers flow toward northeast Oklahoma as they are tributaries of the Arkansas River. In northern Oklahoma, the Arkansas is extensively dammed. Normally, this would not be a huge issue. However, up to 4" of addition rain is expected over Oklahoma the next four days. So, it is possible that all of the water could come together to cause considerable flooding in northeast Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Keep an eye on the river forecasts in these areas.

I'll let the National Hurricane Center have the first word. click to enlarge The SFMR is an instrument that can derive surface wind speeds over the ocean. If the those levels are correct, it would mean that Michael was a Cat. 5. We won't know until there has been a post-storm investigation. As to the storm now, it is a Cat 3 producing wind gusts above 100 mph. Here is the storm at 4:02pm. The eye of Michael will be moving over Donaldson, Florida shortly. The main effect of this will be power failures. The bright red area will likely have power failures and the darker red may have power failures. I'll update again this evening. BRIEF UPDATE: The photos below are from Mexico Beach where meteorologists expected the worst damage to be. Tragically, that appears to have been correct. You don't see a row of homes that was washed away.  Tyndall Air Force Base has been knocked out of commission.  Storm surge flooding:

If you are in the red color over southwest and central Georgia, winds may gust to 70 mph or more. Power failures are likely and they could be of long-duration. Scattered power failures are likely in the darker red shade. Flood watches are in effect for the Carolinas, southern Virginia and parts of Georgia.

12:02pm, we are seeing winds of 183+ mph at 4,000' and the mini-swirls in the eye are being portrayed as tornadoes by the software. That is not incorrect as they will do the same damage as an EF2 or 3. Fortunately, Mexico Beach has a population of only about 1,100. The area from there to Tyndall AFB is sparely populated. Damage will not be as extensive as it would be if this were a densely populated area. ADDITION: 12:08AM, Tyndall AFB reported a gust to 119 mph . Now 129 mph. I wish the reporters would get into buildings and stop being outdoors. They are setting a very bad example and they could get hurt. The eye is clear enough the satellite is showing whitecaps on the ocean through the eye.