There is a tornado warned storm near Abilene at 4pm. See red polygon. The latest satellite imagery shows a boundary between the rain-cooled air over the Metroplex (from this morning's rains) and warmer, more humid air to the south (red). There is a possibility that the supercell southeast of Abilene (yellow box) will ride the boundary as it moves ENE and the boundary moves north. Storms of this nature can produce major severe weather and a tornado watch is in effect. If you live in the Metroplex, please keep a close eye on the weather after 5pm. 

Please keep a close eye on the storm developing near Hays. It is right on the warm front and may slide east producing large hail and damaging winds. It is also in the area where tornadoes are more likely.

Things are evolving pretty much as expected. The original forecast from 1:07pm is below: The radar from 3:21pm CDT shows storms SSW of Abilene that are moving ENE at a good clip and are already severe. Storms should generally intensify during the next hour so people in the threat areas should monitor their approach.

The National Weather Service has issued its tornado watch for north Texas including the DFW Metroplex. Please note there is a "moderate" risk of strong tornadoes. Thunderstorms are now forming north of San Angelo; will move ENE. Monitor local sources for possible storm warnings. 

Above, I have outlined the area that appears to be at risk of tornadoes, large hail and/or damaging thunderstorm winds. There are ongoing thunderstorms in the area (see below) so timing is a bit tricky but I believe the first warnings will be along and to the west of the brown line.  The storms will then move east northeast and east. The purple area -- including much of the Metroplex -- seems to be at enhanced risk for strong storms. Radar at 1:03pm CDT shows areas of storms in northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma. The green counties are flash flood warnings currently in effect.  Normal advice prevails: No need to worry. Just monitor the weather when thunderstorms approach.  Make sure you can get your children or other dependents to shelter on relatively short notice.  Put your car in the garage.  Put items like trampolines and lawn furniture that can blow away in high winds inside. Make sure your flashlight and radio have fresh batteries....

Because so many are requesting it, here is my outline of where I believe exists the greatest risk of tornadoes, large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds after 2pm. There is no risk before 2pm in case you have errands to run, etc.  The initial storms will form from around the Gypsum Hills toward WaKeeney and move east or east northeast from there. I believe there is little to no risk before about 4pm in the counties containing Interstate 135. Normal advice prevails: No need to worry. Just monitor the weather when thunderstorms approach.  Make sure you can get your children or other dependents to shelter on relatively short notice.  Put your car in the garage.  Put items like trampolines and lawn furniture that can blow away in high winds inside. Make sure your flashlight and radio have fresh batteries.  I will provide additional updates later this afternoon. I'll post on the Texas threat shortly.