My colleagues at AccuWeather are already monitoring the situation. Here is my analysis based on the Storm Prediction Center's forecast for tomorrow: The hatched area is where wind gusts of 75 mph or greater are forecast Thursday and/or Thursday night This would make for a storm similar to the derecho that affected the area from eastern Iowa and Chicago to Washington, D.C. then to the Atlantic on June 29.  If you'll recall, there were people without power for ten days  in that case. So, I have advice for two groups:   If you live in the hatched area,   how would you handle an extended power outage? If you, for example, have someone dependent on chilled insulin and have thought about a generator, now might be a good time to follow through. DO NOT HOOK IT INTO YOUR HOME ELECTRICAL SYSTEM YOURSELF. That is a job for an electrician.  You could, however, get one that could go on your patio and plug up to two extension cords onto the generator's external o...

Looks like another round of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. AccuWeather has details. Here are some charts to help you assess the risk at your location courtesy of the National Weather Service. Fifteen percent is the significant risk threshold. O'Hare already has major departure delays because of earlier thunderstorms (no thunderstorms there now). With the hubs at Minneapolis, Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit at risk today, it may cause significant airline travel problems by this evening. Airline travel problems are likely tomorrow as the Northeast -- once again -- is in the severe thunderstorm risk area. If you are planning to travel by air later today or tomorrow, please take a look at my Airline Crisis Survival Guide . Good luck!

Last weekend, I took Kathleen (left), my sister-in-law Robin, and brother Mark to the new Museum and Big Well in Greensburg. They were all as impressed as I thought they would be. If your summer vacation is going to bring you into southern Kansas, don't miss this wonderful town and its new attractions. Robin discovered that my books are sold in the gift shop and wanted to model for everyone.

The wind speed legend at left is in knots. Multiply by 1.15 to get miles per hour and you can see that the radar is measuring winds at 75 mph just above the ground in the southeast part of Raleigh. There reports of uprooted trees and power failures in the area. So far, the peak gust at the airport is 40 mph. However, with the heavy rains and limited visibilities at the airport expect delays.

UPDATE at 3:27pm EDT. Closeup of the storms in the Triangle indicate very strong cells with the potential for wind gusts above 70 mph. Most of the storms are moving toward the ESE. Yellow polygon = severe thunderstorm warnings for 1" hail and damaging winds. ORIGINAL POST BELOW: The storms west of Raleigh-Durham are quite strong and are capable of very strong, damaging winds and large hail. Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar as of  3:13 PM EDT. Doppler wind measurements are 70 mph or a little higher in the storms west of Raleigh that are moving ESE.

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the Middle Atlantic region effective until 8pm EDT. Note the likelihood of winds 58 mph or more is "high" and winds of 75 mph or more is "moderate." Two posts down, I talk about the large area covered by the National Weather Service's severe weather outlook. The thunderstorms have already left a trail of wind damage. AccuWeather has details. As forecast, the chances of damaging winds are increasing in the East. And, if they can get organized, we might see widespread damaging winds or even a derecho. Here is the Storm Prediction Center's map which shows where conditions are generally favorable for a derecho (values of 2 or higher). Wind speeds may be especially high in North Carolina and southern Virginia if thunderstorms move over those areas. AccuWeather Regional Radar at 1:14pm EDT shows thunderstorms rapidly developing.  Note the storms approaching Boston's Logan Air...

In Mike Smith's highly-regarded first book Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather, Mike makes the case that the only thing separating American society from triple and quadruple-digit death tolls from tornadoes and other storms is the storm warning system developed by weather scientists over the last fifty years. But, what if the warning system failed? Would triple-digit fatalities result? Mike takes a closer look at the warning system in his second book, When the Sirens Were Silent, when that point was sadly proven on May 22, 2011, when 161 lost their lives in a tornado that caught many residents of Joplin, Missouri by surprise. Mike will be sharing his presentation, The Value of the Tornado Warning System, with members of the East Wichita Rotary Club at their noon meeting on Wednesday, July 25, 2012 to be held at the Marriot in Wichita. Mike's new book Sirens  includes information to help keep you and your family safe in future storms and c...