What may be a record November snow event has just begun. This will unquestionably affect O'Hare and Midway (not to mention the issues with air traffic control due to the government shutdown) and may affect Amtrak.  Updated Snowfall Amount Forecast Current conditions in South Bend by Connor Croft. --- original post --- The area in pink has a winter storm warning. Purple is a winter weather advisory (lesser condition). The area around Waukegan has a winter storm watch. Thundersnow is possible.  As much as 18 inches  with drifting is possible. Please factor this into your travel plans. 

Second tornado watch issued.  The area tinted in red has an enhanced risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening.  As of 1:30pm, thunderstorms are forming in Iowa. Please keep an eye on the weather the rest o the afternoon if you live in this area. 

12:55pm College of DuPage Graphic The risk of tornadoes and wind gusts of 75 mph are ramping up in the area outlined in red. Several confirmed tornadoes have already occurred. I urge you to monitor the weather in this area the rest of the afternoon and into this evening.  Tornado watch issued.  In addition to tornadoes, wind gusts of 75 mph are possible. Please monitor the weather through this evening if you live in the yellow-shaded areas.  --- original post, forecast still valid --- The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area has a significant risk.  Please keep up on the weather -- especially if you live in the yellow area -- the rest of the day. 

Based on various news reports this morning, the death toll from yesterday's tornadoes ranges appears to have been 22.  CNN, London, KY The worst damage was in Kentucky, involving the towns of Somerset and London. That was nighttime tornado with 15 killed.  Marion (southern), Illinois was also hard-hit.  St. Louis, the city where more people have been killed by tornadoes than any other, reports five fatalities this morning. The blue area on the map above show approximate area affected by the tornado which first touched down around Clayton, went across north City and then into the Metro east near Alton. I am concerned about tornadoes the next few days, especially Sunday and Monday. I'll have separate forecasts up later today.  

I stayed up to get you the latest rainfall amount forecast for the next 48 hours (12:30a Friday).  Yes, that is another 7-9 inches in the amber area from now until 7pm Saturday evening. Catastrophic flooding is forecast by the National Water Center in a band from Ft. Smith and Mena to Louisville.  If you live in an area which has flooded before, it will likely do so with this "historic" (NWS) flood event. It is necessary to be able to leave on short notice if an evacuation is ordered or if you observe rapidly rising water. Keep in mind the 100% cause of flood deaths is driving or walking through a flooded area.  If you are a logistics manager, forget about getting long haul shipments via truck or rail through this region the next few days. 

7:40pm CDT This is where the highest chance of tornadoes exists the rest of the evening until 1am CST. Note: This ends my coverage for the evening. Thank you for reading.  5:55pm CDT Watch is in effect until 1am EDT. Note that "strong" tornadoes are forecast to occur.  2:40pm This is the area about which I am most concerned when it comes to tornadoes, especially from southern Illinois to Arkansas.  Reminder: I provide additional coverage on Twsitter/X @usweatherexpert .  1:20pm Tornado Watch, Includes Chicago 12:10pm - Tornado Watch This is the first tornado watch of the day. Note also that hail to 2" and 70 mph wind gusts are forecast to occur.  Now is the time to make sure, if you live in a mobile or manufactured home, to know where the nearest public shelter is  located. You will find a national list and map here .  Tornado Risk The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. ...

Second Tornado Watch First Tornado Watch Tornado watch in effect for "a couple of strong tornadoes" from now until 7pm CDT. It includes the south part of Chicagoland, the Quad Cities and western Indiana. Please monitor the weather the rest of the day! I am providing real-time updated information on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  --- Tornado Forecast Until 7am CDT --- The yellow, hatched area has an  enhanced risk of strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The brown area, which includes Chicago and the Quad Cities, has a significant risk of tornadoes. With the 11:10 update, Ft. Madison and Dubuque have been added to the brown area. In the meantime, please make sure your shelter area is cleaned out and read to go with a couple of bottles of water, shoes (if your home is hit you don't want to walk barefoot on debris), and diapers if appropriate.  If you live in a mobile home, it is important to find other shelter. If you do not have friends or family in a nearby conventiona...

Tornadoes are likely  in this region. Please monitor the weather throughout the late afternoon and evening.  --- original ---  There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the orange area with a significant risk of tornadoes in the yellow area.  Please keep an eye on the weather in this area. 

Tornadoes, 2" hail and 75 mph winds are forecast to occur.  Please note that, in addition to tornadoes, the forecast is for 2" hail and wind gusts to 70 mph which have the potential to cause tree damage and power outages.  -- original, and still valid, posting --- The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Please keep up on the weather later today. I will provide an update this afternoon. 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued Ahead of Squall Line - 11:40pm Severe thunderstorm watch just now issued including Topeka and Kansas City. It warns of 75 mph winds, 2" hail and "a tornado or two." It is in effect until 7am.  A Powerful Squall Line is Moving Southeast at 11:30pm There has been considerable wind damage in the Omaha area. The squall line in central Nebraska will sweep up the storms ahead of it and charge southeast during the night. Power failures likely. Make sure you have some way of getting storm warnings for your area while sleeping.  This is the last update of the night.  -- first update-- I believe the squall line is going to form and move southeast. Damaging winds are quite likely. Right now (9:24pm), the southernmost circled storm has a tornado warning. Please make sure you can get warnings during the night in Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa.  --- original posting --- The pink tint represents severe thunderstorm watches as of 5:30pm. There a...

9:55PM UPDATE Between now and 11pm, wind gusts to 70 mph with power outages are possible north of the pink line.  A tornado cannot be completely ruled out in northern Illinois.  This will be the last update for the night.  Note: At 9:40pm, I believe the threat of tornadoes is over in Wisconsin Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Forecast Updated 7:36p Flood Threat updated at 7pm.  The above is a flash flood forecast for the area outlined in purple. The highest flood risk is outlined in bright red, which corresponds to part of the tornado risk area. If you are concerned about flooding and don't wish to go to the basement if a tornado warning is issued, go to the bathroom or closest on the first floor (not second floor) in the middle of the home.  -- original post, still valid -- The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today (after 12 noon, CDT). Please keep an eye on the weather in these regions.  Also, there is a risk of tornadoes in New England Su...

The area outlined in red will see a tornado watch issued in the near future. This includes Tulsa, Dallas-Ft Worth and Waco. Please monitor the weather in this area the rest of the day. Original Post: The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes today. There is also the risk of giant hail (larger than 2") in the hatched area. The enhanced risk is in red.

Tornado and Extreme Winds Forecast in the Midwest Please bookmark: www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com We provide unique coverage of tornadoes, derechos and other types of extreme weather.  Also, I provide live coverage of tornadoes and other major storms here: @usweatherexpert Please call friends and relatives and make sure they are aware of these forecasts! 8:25pm - Northern Arkansas Tornado Watch  7:17:pm -  Illinois Tornado Watch  6:45pm - Wisconsin Tornado Watch  6pm Update - New Tornado Watch  There are tornado-bearing thunderstorms near the west side of this watch, so people need to be monitoring the weather the rest of the evening.  I will be updating on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  4:05pm Update This tornado watch until midnight includes Madison, Janesville and Milwaukee. Please monitor the weather closely in these areas. I also update on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  2:45pm Update I am confident tornadoes will occur in this watch. In additi...