3:10pm UPDATE: Potential Life-Threatening Tornado Outbreak Late This Afternoon and Tonight

By -

[scroll up for updated weather information]

This tornado outbreak has the potential for violent, long-tracked tornadoes at night. It is a recipe for a terrible disaster in terms of human life if precautions are not taken. 

The NWS SPC has expanded the red area in Iowa since this morning's forecasts. I continue to believe the brown area 

Here are the color codes:
  • Red hatched: High risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Yellow hatched: Enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Brown: Significant risk of tornadoes.
The northern area of Iowa-Illinois-Missouri will see tornado-producing thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday night.

In the northern area, the storms are established by 6pm.

The southern area, from St. Louis across the Ozarks and into northeast Texas, may not develop until evening and then continue well into the night. Nighttime tornadoes are 2.5 times more deadly than tornadoes during the day. Below shows the beginning of the southern area as depicted by the TTWRF model. Note the strong storms in eastern Kansas that are not shown on some other models. 
The above image shows the forecast radar as well as rotation in the storm (red lines) as of 11pm.

In the strongest possible terms, I urge you to:
  • Sign up for StormWarn. It is just $25 for a year of peace of mind. If you are in the direct path of a tornado or 80+ mph thunderstorm-generated winds, it will ring two phones of yours with the warning. Think of it as a tornado alarm. Unlike a weather radio, it will not alert you to 1" hail 20 miles away at 3am.
  • A weather radio. They will wake you up. I recommend the programmable version to filter out the false alarms as much as possible. 
  • An app like AccuWeather's. Enable "location" to it will tell you if a tornado warning has been issued. 
  • Enable the FCC's Wireless Emergency Alerts on your smartphone. On an iPhone, touch "notifications" and scroll down. These aren't perfect. 
I recommend you have at least three of the above. It is still early in the 2023 tornado season, so any purchase of StormWarn or a weather radio will carry you through the season. If you have friends or relatives in these areas, call them and refer them to this forecast. Their lives may literally depend on it. 

If you live in a mobile home, please, please listen to this brief piece from my friend Charles Peek. If it were me and there wasn't a friend or relative I could stay with tomorrow night, I would spend the Tuesday night in a motel if the forecast still looks this way Tuesday morning. 

If the tornado alarm goes off, make sure you have shoes and a flashlight nearby to take into shelter. 
I will update this forecast in the mid- to late afternoon..  And, remember, I provide real-time storm coverage on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  

BTW: If you enjoy weather... especially tornadoes, hurricanes and severe storms, you'll love my book Warnings. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more