Update on Powerful Hurricane Ian

By -
Note: There is a newer update here. 

-- original posting --

Below is an update as to the Ian's position and strength.
This is a very dangerous hurricane that will cause a great deal of destruction and danger to life. It will rapidly strengthen this afternoon.



11:10am Tuesday: I have added elements of the 11am forecast package from the National Hurricane Center. See below:

Ian has strengthened overnight to at least 125 mph winds with a minimum pressure of 950 millibars. The satellite pattern (not shown) and the radar are both impressive. Below is the latest image from the Key West radar. This is the 10:15am image.

I predict the strengthening will continue when it is completely off the coast of Cuba. 

Below is my forecast of where the eye will make landfall.
Here is the 11am track forecast from the National Hurricane Center. They have finally moved their forecast to the south. 

Below is what I believe is a reasonable wind pattern. It is important to remember it could shift north or south.

And, here is a closeup of the Tampa Bay area.

Here is an overview of the storm surge situation.

Here are the storm surge details: Here are the National Weather Service's maps:


Extreme storm surge is forecast in the Cape Coral - Port Charlotte area and in parts of Tampa Bay. This is an extremely dangerous situation. 

From the Hurricane Center, here are updated 11am surge forecasts:





Flooding rains are likely in the Florida Peninsula and in parts of the Southeast.


Tornadoes are likely across the Florida Peninsula. Now is the perfect time to sign up with StormWarn. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more