3-Day Extended Tornado Outlook

We are in an unusual meteorological situation where, if my analysis is correct, we have an opportunity to provide an extended period tornado risk forecast. Please note: in the vast majority of cases, we are not able to provide this much advance notice of a major tornado threat. 

The enhanced tornado risk, outlined in orange, is a forecast valid from 5am Tuesday to 7am Wednesday. 

The high tornado risk area, outlined is red, is valid from 2pm Tuesday until 2am Wednesday. Any tornadoes in the high risk area will be accompanied by large hail just to the north of their paths. 

It is important to understand that we have no way to know exactly when and where the tornadoes may strike. I'll be thrilled with tornadoes that move through the nearly deserted Flint Hills that hurt no one and destroy almost no property. I'm confident I will have to adjust the forecast as we get closer to Tuesday. Still, it is prudent to consider what might be done to prepare if the storms affect populated areas.

Below is a discussion of what can or should be done to prepare regardless of risk area in which you reside given three days of notice. 

How to Use an Extended Tornado Outlook

  • The first priority should be people. Make sure you can get yourself, your family and friends into a basement or storm shelter. Make plans now. If driving needs to occur to get people to safety, it should be done with the tornado watch is issued.
  • If your school has not yet run a tornado drill in 2022, do it Monday. Make sure everyone knows the correct procedures. Decide Monday what you would do if a tornado threat should materialize with an hour of dismissal. Consider cancelling after-school activities. 
  • Allow employees to work from home after lunchtime on Tuesday. 
  • If you live in a mobile home, get out when the tornado watch is issued, unless you have a close-by storm shelter. Monday: Make sure the shelter is in good order. 
  • All shelters should have old shoes, a radio with fresh battery, a couple of bottles of water and a couple of diapers. Carry your prescription meds into the shelter. 
  • If you use a closet or bath in the center of your home, you might want to see if you can put some sort of head covering (football or baseball helmet, for example) on while you shelter. If you use the tub, put the matress in the bathroom so it is ready to go. 
  • We are putting our family heirlooms in the basement. I just backed up my computer and will do so again Monday. I will put the backup drive in the basement. 
  • Make room in the garage to put your car inside. 
  • Insure you have WEA warnings activated on your smartphone. In addition to WEA, make sure you have at least one other way to get warnings besides sirens and television. WeatherCall is a good choice. 
  • Get some extra cash at the ATM and fill your car with fuel Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning. 
Of course, I will continue to update these forecasts. 


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